In recent months, the senator (-RJ) has assumed the front line of (PL) behind the political scenes and has been adopting a more emphatic public defense of his father and tougher against the (Supreme Federal Court). The movement intensified allies’ bets on his name as someone Bolsonaro would like to nominate as successor to the Palácio do Planalto, although the scenario is still uncertain.
The assessment — which, for some, is more of a fear — is that the former president trusts his children more and would think it fair to keep the electoral spoils in the clan. Within this logic, Flávio would be the most viable name.
Furthermore, interlocutors who have been with Bolsonaro in recent weeks report that he puts obstacles in the way of all the other names mentioned, from governors to former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro. To assistants, he recently reaffirmed that she will be a candidate for the Federal District.
On the other hand, the former president gives contradictory signals and, with the isolation of house arrest, contact with the political world is restricted. At one point, according to reports to Sheethe has already said that he does not want his family in Executive positions, as he believes that their occupants are more susceptible than parliamentarians to supposed persecution by the Judiciary.
Bolsonaro has already been declared ineligible by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). Furthermore, this Friday the ministers of the First Panel of the STF voted unanimously to dismiss the coup plot, in which he was sentenced to 27 years in prison — which could leave him without the right to run.
The imminent outcome of the case increased pressure from sectors of society and the political world for a decision on 2026.
At the beginning of the year, there was an expectation that, when he was arrested, Bolsonaro would announce who he would like to hand over his political capital to. With this, right-wing parties could organize their candidacies and campaigns for next year. The preferred name was and continues to be that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
Flávio has always publicly denied any alternative to his father in the Planalto race and says he is a candidate for re-election in the Senate, but his name has remained on the betting exchange for months. How to Sheet showed in July, allies said at the time that the dispute was .
Since then, the former president was placed under house arrest earlier than expected, in August. Other names emerged for the succession, notably those of right-wing governors and the (PL-SP). In parallel, his actions in the United States led to tariffs on Brazilian products, in addition to sanctions on STF ministers.
In this movement, Tarcísio would have become discouraged for the dispute. He visited Bolsonaro more than once, repeating on the way out that he is a candidate for re-election in São Paulo. To interlocutors, he says that he would only leave Palácio dos Bandeirantes if it were at the request of the former president — something that, until now, has not been formalized.
Bolsonaro, in turn, says that this is not the time to decide who he will nominate, only later, without saying who he will choose or what deadline he has defined.
Some of the former president’s interlocutors believe that the governor will indeed be the candidate, and that there is some kind of tacit agreement between Tarcísio and Bolsonaro so that the announcement will only be made next year, before the party window.
Behind the scenes work
Meanwhile, Flávio maintains primary dialogue with the political world. He discusses candidacies internally and with other parties, as his father’s spokesman, a behind-the-scenes role he is already known for playing.
Flávio was chosen by his father to go to the United States to talk to Eduardo to “align speech” with his brother. The deputy has adopted a more radical tone since going abroad and has not spared attacks on right-wing allies, especially Tarcísio. The public exchange of barbs is something that
Eduardo’s allies say that they talked about 2026 and that the two will be together supporting the same candidate as the former president.
The senator has also intensified attacks on the Lula (PT) government, especially with regard to public security, and the STF.
Of the children, Flávio was always the most moderate and defended an amnesty “for everyone, including Moraes”. Afterwards, he adopted a more critical tone and began to defend the judge’s impeachment.
In an interview with Sheet in June, he said that a possible candidate, to receive his father’s support, must not only grant him a pardon, if necessary.
He also participates in political conversations and events, on behalf of his father. Last Friday (7), the new counselor of the TCE (State Audit Court) of São Paulo, Wagner Rosário, who was minister of Bolsonaro’s CGU, attended the inauguration. The event served as a kind of atonement for the former president.
Tarcísio, in his speech, said that gratitude does not prescribe and made a gesture to the senator. “I would like to thank you very much for the special presence of the senators and Flávio Bolsonaro. And say, Flávio, that your father is present here with us: you represent President Jair Bolsonaro, who is not here, but is certainly very happy with the inauguration of Wagner de Campos Rosário”, he stated.
Wagner Rosário also remembered Bolsonaro and choked up his voice when talking about the former president. According to reports, those present were emotional, including Flávio.
On social media, the senator also published a photo with Wagner and Tarcísio and said that better days will come.
“Jair Bolsonaro was the one who should have been at the Table of Honor celebrating with us his well-deserved inauguration at TCE/SP, but the relentless, cowardly and illegal persecution didn’t allow it. Better days will come, for Brazil and for São Paulo with you on such a special mission. Congratulations on the right appointment, Tarciência!”, he wrote.
Participating via videoconference in the inauguration of the PL’s regional headquarters in Atibaia, Flávio insisted that his father will be elected president of the Republic again.
“You can be sure: we will not give up on our Brazil. President Bolsonaro is going through this moment of persecution, but we will respond to everyone who today promotes this relentless unfair and unfair persecution. Because we will go up the ramp together in Brasília for the election of our president Bolsonaro”, he stated.
