CNC indicator went from 57.5% in January 2015 to 76.1% in the same month of 2025
The proportion of indebted people rose from 57.5% in January 2015 to 76.1% in the same month of 2025 – an increase of 18.6 percentage points in the period. The data are from Peic (Consumer Debt and Default Survey), from (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism).
When comparing the 57.5% in January 2015 with the 79.5% in October 2025, the increase was 22 percentage points. October’s percentage was a record for the 3rd consecutive month.
Peic measures the level of debt with credit cards, special checks, payroll loans, home equity payments and other types. Being in debt does not necessarily mean being in default; indicates financial commitments to be paid.
The proportion of families with outstanding installments also reached a record high in October, at 30.5%.
The CNC’s chief economist, Fábio Bentes, said in an interview with Poder360 that the tendency is for debt and default rates to remain high until the end of the year.
“Even if there is a reduction in the basic interest rate, it takes time between the Copom decision [Comitê de Política Monetária] and the behavior of consumer interest rates at the high end, which is what directly causes debt and default to grow”he stated.
According to the economist, the drop should last until 2026 because “a reduction in interest rates is expected in the 1st quarter”. Currently, the basic interest rate (Selic) is 15% per year. The Copom decides this percentage.
Bentes said that it would be possible to reduce debt to the level observed in January 2015, of 57.5%, but assessed that this is unlikely in the short term. According to him, the increase of around 20 percentage points in 10 years was gradual.
“One of the reasons that makes it difficult to reach this debt level below 60% again is that there is annual growth in the credit market in Brazil. People are increasingly clinging to credit”these.
The Central Bank showed that the credit stock rose in the 12 months up to September.
According to Bentes, however, it is important “demystify” this topic because resorting to credit is not necessarily bad. The economist said that, for example, to buy a car or an appliance, the majority of the population is unable to purchase these goods without financing.
“What worries us is not the growth in debt, although 79.5% is a lot. What worries us is the imbalance between the expansion of debt and the ability to honor these commitments. And our current scenario draws a lot of attention. With a Selic of 7% or 8%, we would certainly not be seeing this level of debt and default that we are currently seeing”he declared.
According to Bentes, however, one should not “playing the blame” no Banco Central: “The Copom ended up absorbing an additional obligation and responsibility, which is to try to rebalance the economy affected by fiscal imbalances. The core of the problem is fiscal. The State spending as it does will require an increasingly greater effort from the Central Bank”.
According to the economist, what would be necessary to correct this problem would be, for example, to carry out an administrative reform. “There is superficial talk about administrative reform today, when in fact it should have been put on the table way back when, before the tax reform”these.
Black Friday e Natal
Due to the rise in debt and default, the economist declared that retail should reap results “mediocre” both on Black Friday and Christmas because “there is no more room in the family budget”.
“79.5% of families are in debt and 30.5% have outstanding debts, meaning there is no space in the family budget for new rounds of consumption”declared Bentes.
Furthermore, according to the economist, the impact on Black Friday and Christmas sales also varies by sector. There are segments that need credit, such as electronics, household appliances and IT, which tend to see a drop in sales volume. On the other hand, segments that are less dependent on credit, such as food and cosmetics, may see a modest increase.
“When we imagine these very important commemorative dates for commerce, we should have low growth on average, but this average is made up of segments that should see a drop in sales and others that should see some increase”said Bentes.
