3 has been marked by shocks of a singular nature. The historian of the future will not escape this singularity, although some of these shocks are events of great historical importance per se. I think of shocks not as a reference to cyclical variations or the volatility inherent in the political system, but to structural changes — changes in the parameters of the political game that produce lasting effects throughout the mandate and do not result from the direct action of the government or its leaders. They are, therefore, exogenous shocks, whose positive or negative impact varies depending on the event.
The first shock was on January 8, 2023, shortly after the presidential inauguration. Episodes of this magnitude, occurring at the beginning of a term, are rare. The main consequence was the production of a national unity effect, which generated significant political gains for the government and imposed considerable costs on sectors of the opposition. Bolsonarism was particularly hit.
The second shock resulted from the revelations about the military conspiracy. Society watched, perplexed, as details of an attempted coup were exposed. Unlike January 8, whose main effects dissipated in about a year, the disclosure of the conspiracy had a deeper and more prolonged impact, structurally altering the relationship between institutions and actors. The exposure led to the trial of those involved, with widespread media exposure of the plot, and unprecedented condemnation of the protagonists.
Not all shocks, however, produced net benefits to the government. , for example, had profoundly negative effects: it interrupted critical production chains, such as fuel and fertilizers, generating inflationary pressures. More importantly, the president’s gaffes — perceived as diplomatic mistakes — compromised relations with strategic partners, especially the European Union. This third shock was amplified by events in Gaza, which produced similar effects: new diplomatic controversies, relative isolation, and domestic political costs.
Another episode of an exogenous nature was the binomial and a. These events triggered a new and important effect of national unity and reversed the drop in the government’s assessment. Thus, it was a doubly exogenous shock — both due to its random nature and its external origin.
The fifth shock, the police operation in Complexo do Alemão, can also be interpreted in this way due to the extent of its repercussions. The episode redefined the terms of political competition on multiple levels: first, it dispelled the optimism generated by the positive developments in negotiations with the US and the ceasefire in Gaza; second, it reoriented the public agenda towards security and the fight against organized crime; finally, it redefined the electoral dispute. This inflection coincided, however, with the appointment of Boulos to the General Secretariat of the Presidency — a movement in a direction radically contrary to the damage containment that the government will have to adopt.
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