O Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BC (Central Bank) decided to maintain the basic interest rate at 15%, the highest level in almost two decades.
like civil construction, industry e businesswhich depend heavily on credit and consumers willing to invest.
In a scenario of high interestdebt service becomes more expensive, financial expenses increase and company profits come under pressure. As a result, banks become more selective in granting credit, making it difficult to roll over debt, especially for highly leveraged companies with short-term debt.
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High Selic makes access to housing difficult
A study by Abrainc (Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers) points out that, in the last five years, the increase in interest rates has removed around 800 thousand families of the market real estate creditreducing the number of people eligible for properties worth up to R$500,000 by 50%.
“Each percentage point increase in rates eliminates, on average, 160 thousand families from the financing”, informed the association.
According to Ieda Vasconcelos, chief economist at CBIC (Brazilian Chamber of Construction Industry), the rise in interest rates reduced the capture of savingsthe main source of real estate credit.
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Data from Abecip (Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings Entities) show that, until September, the total number of properties financed with resources from the SBPE (Brazilian Savings and Loan System) reached 329.1 thousand units, a reduction of 20.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Despite the slowdown, the sector continues to generate jobs: there were 89 thousand new vacancies in the 12 months up to August, the lowest level in the last five years. CBIC reduced its construction growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.3% in 2025.
Interest rates hold back industry and investments
With expensive and restricted credit, industrial companies face more difficulty in finance working capital and invest in new projects. THE industrial production fell 0.4% between August and September, according to IBGE, reflecting the impact of monetary policy.
A study by the CNI (National Confederation of Industry) shows that 80% of industries point to interest rate as the main barrier to short-term credit, while 71% cite the same problem in the long term. Furthermore, the increase in IOF (Financial Operations Tax) rates further reduced the credit offer and the volume of investments.
“This effect especially affects the durable goods sectors, such as automotiveo electronics and civil construction, which depend directly on credit conditions and household purchasing power”, says João Gabriel Pio, economist at Fiemg.
Falling consumption and risk of business closure
With high interest rates, more expensive credit and default rate on the risewhich already affects 30.4% of families, the household consumption has retreated. According to the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism), 80% of families are in debt, and consumers have been postponing purchases and reducing spending.
“Entrepreneurs face a slowdown in sales, increased inventories and the need to cut costs,” says Fábio Bentes, chief economist at CNC.
For him, the current scenario could lead to the closure of more vulnerable companies, a drop in profits and pressure on job creation. In the year to September, the commerce sector created 138 thousand jobs, a drop of 21.3% compared to 2024, a direct reflection of the economic slowdown.
“Consumers are reducing spending and future confidence in the financial situation has fallen drastically. The scenario could lead to the closure of more vulnerable businesses and continued pressure on the profitability of the sector as a whole”, concludes Bentes.
