After a week dedicated to the international agenda, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returns to the Palácio do Planalto with the mission of defining Luís Roberto Barroso’s successor in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the sanction of the new Income Tax, approved by Congress last Thursday. The two decisions should set the tone for Planalto’s relationship with the Senate in the coming weeks and serve as a thermometer of the government’s political strength at the end of the legislative year.
Among advisors, the expectation is that Lula will confirm this week the appointment of Jorge Messias, current attorney general of the Union, for Barroso’s vacancy, open since October 18th. The president, however, has not yet closed the political equation that involves the choice: he needs to guarantee sufficient votes in the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) and in the Senate plenary, in addition to preserving bridges with Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) — two allies who are working behind the scenes for Pacheco’s own candidacy for the Supreme Court.
The president knows that Messias faces resistance from the opposition, which sees him as a figure identified with the PT, but is betting on the articulation of Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) and support from the evangelical bench, where senators such as Mecias de Jesus (Republicanos-RR) have already expressed their support for his nomination.
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In Planalto’s calculations, Messias’ approval must repeat the pattern of Flávio Dino’s hearing, with a score between 50 and 60 votes.
While trying to secure a nomination for the Supreme Court, Lula must also sanction the project that corrects the Income Tax table, expanding the exemption range for income of up to R$5,000 per month. The measure, approved unanimously in both Houses, is treated as a symbolic victory for the government after a sequence of regimental defeats in Congress. The economic team, led by Fernando Haddad, calculates that the fiscal impact will be around R$18 billion annually, offset by taxation on exclusive funds and sports betting.
The sanction ceremony is scheduled to take place later this week, at Palácio do Planalto, with the presence of Haddad, the Senate rapporteur, Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), and leaders of base parties. The government wants to transform the act into a political vitamin — a gesture of recomposing Lula’s image among the middle class and reaffirming the commitment to the discourse of “adjustment with social justice”.
Aides say that Lula sees the project as the first delivery with a direct impact on taxpayers since the beginning of his term, and believes that the sanction will help to neutralize the erosion of the economic agenda with Congress.
