for withdrawing from the Senate race is not just a local dispute, but it affects the chessboard of politics at the national level, especially on the right. Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) is chosen by (PL) to run for one of the state vacancies, while Jorginho Mello (PL) may have Espiridião Amin (PP) as his nominee for the other vacancy. Palver data shows that this movement triggered a deeper rearrangement within the Bolsonarist ecosystem.
Analysis of more than 100,000 public Telegram groups reveals that Bolsonaro and his family still dominate the digital debate, appearing in 36.91% of mentions related to the topic of the political arrangement in Santa Catarina. The distribution of other mentions shows a more fragmented field, with 8.13% of mentions, followed by Nikolas Ferreira with 7.21%. These numbers confirm the emergence of new political references amid a discussion about allies and traitors within the Bolsonarista movement.
Those directly involved in the Santa Catarina crisis also appear prominently. Esperidião Amin is mentioned in 2.55% of the messages, while Caroline de Toni accounts for 2.08%. For a state dispute, this is a significant volume, a sign that the case quickly became nationalized. Ana Campagnolo, who became a spokesperson for dissatisfaction with the party’s choice for , appears with 1.17%, marking a gain in relevance, to the point of being the target of attacks from the Bolsonarist wing on the networks.
The crisis gained an additional layer when the Bolsonaro clan publicly reacted to criticism. published a video accusing Campagnolo of indiscipline. At other times when allies questioned the decisions taken by the party leadership, the Bolsonarist ecosystem responded in the same way, with moralizing content, aimed at asserting the family’s authority, rescuing old posts and speeches with the aim of attacking the reputation and questioning the loyalty of the “insubordinates”, accusing them of treason.
The governor’s movement towards the PP and the consequent emptying of Carol’s candidacy highlighted the difficulty in maintaining ideological discourse at the same time that political composition is necessary for the electoral dispute. In the monitored groups, content about “betrayal”, “ingratitude” and “top-down intervention” quickly emerged, fueled by videos of cuts, old prints and out-of-context excerpts.
Even with the start of the riot, Palver data shows that Bolsonaro and his family continue to lead the debate. However, there is a noticeable shift towards other names such as Tarcísio de Freitas, who had an increase in mentions after his appearance on , alongside , reinforcing the public security agenda. The right, at the same time as it is fragmenting, seems to be rehearsing a new axis of power, with other names occupying the center of discussions.
The dispute in Santa Catarina, therefore, is not just about a seat in the Senate. It is about who speaks for the right, who distributes prestige and who has the ability to discipline the base. Bolsonaro’s succession is already being debated, and these political movements are part of this process. The Bolsonaro family faces the challenge of maintaining internal cohesion in the party while trying to remain competitive in electoral politics. The most difficult thing, however, is to keep the ideological base warm while allying with the centrão parties.
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