O Flemish won the Santos this Sunday (9), 3-2, at Maracanã, and equaled the 68 points achieved by Palm treescurrent leader of the Brazilian Championship. Rubro-Negro, however, occupies second place in the tournament due to having one less victory than the team from São Paulo (21 x 20).
It is worth noting that, with the triumph over Alvinegro Praiano, the Rio club does not depend solely on itself to achieve the national title.
In contact with ItatiaiaProfessor Gilcione Costa, responsible for the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, explained what Flamengo needs to do to be Brazilian champions in 2025.
What Flamengo needs to do to be Brazilian champion
The simplest account for this is as follows: the Rio team wins all six remaining games in the championship, reaches 86 points and hopes for Palmeiras to lose or draw in one of the remaining duels. With this score, the Rio club currently has a 99.2% chance of winning the Brazilian title.
This way, Alviverde would finish the championship with 84 points (in case of a draw and five wins), or with 83 (in case of a defeat and five wins).
Another way mentioned by Gilcione would be if Flamengo reached 82 points – a “safe” number for the title. According to the study released by UFMG, if Rubro-Negro reaches this mark, it will have an 89.3% chance of lifting the cup.
“If Flamengo finishes with 82 points, for example, it would have an 89.3% chance of being the champion. In other words, if it scores 14 points in the remaining six games, there would be a good chance that Palmeiras will stumble in some game, and thus (Flamengo) will be the champion”, said Gilcione Costa.
Retrospect of the Brazilian Championship
When analyzing all editions of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A in the current format – with 20 clubs and 38 rounds – only on two occasions did the champion score more than 82 points, in 2019 and 2021.
Title probability by score
- 79 points — 64.1%
- 80 points — 75.9%
- 81 points — 82.7%
- 82 points — 89.3%
- 83 points — 94.3%
- 84 points — 96.6%
- 86 points — 99.2%
Score of Brazilian champions in the current format of the competition since 2006
- 2024 – Botafogo – 79 points
- 2023 – Palmeiras – 70 points
- 2022 – Palmeiras – 81 points
- 2021 – Atlético – 84 points
- 2020 – Flamengo – 71 points
- 2019 – Flamengo – 90 points
- 2018 – Palmeiras – 80 points
- 2017 – Corinthians – 72 points
- 2016 – Palmeiras – 80 points
- 2015 – Corinthians – 81 points
- 2014 – Cruzeiro – 80 points
- 2013 – Cruzeiro – 76 points
- 2012 – Fluminense – 77 points
- 2011 – Corinthians – 71 points
- 2010 – Fluminense – 71 points
- 2009 – Flamengo – 67 points
- 2008 – São Paulo – 75 points
- 2007 – São Paulo – 77 points
- 2006 – São Paulo – 78 points
