Why flight cancellations are expected to increase even more in the US

(Bloomberg) — Snow in Chicago, one of the largest U.S. aviation hubs, is worsening travel chaos at U.S. airports on Monday as mandatory government restrictions on flights enter their fourth day.

As of 7:15 a.m. New York time, the number of cancellations at U.S. airports reached 1,432 flights, according to data compiled by aviation analytics firm Cirium. That represents about 5.5% of the 25,733 flights scheduled for the day, and the number is “growing,” the company said.

Chicago O’Hare International, LaGuardia and Newark Liberty International airports recorded the highest number of cancellations, with at least 8% of the total scheduled. Delta Air Lines Inc. was the airline with the highest number of canceled flights.

Why flight cancellations are expected to increase even more in the US

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Airlines felt the impact of increased cancellations and delays over the weekend, with mounting disruptions leaving passengers and crew displaced. The situation will likely be worsened by winter weather in Chicago, where several inches of snow are forecast to accumulate in the metro area, the National Weather Service said Monday morning.

Meanwhile, the impasse in Washington has now exceeded 40 days, although the Senate took an important step on Sunday to reopen the government when some moderate Democrats joined Republicans. It is not yet clear whether the impasse will be resolved, given the strong opposition in the House of Representatives.

Furthermore, it could take several days for votes in Congress to be taken.

Read more: Senate advances plan to end strike after agreement by some Democrats

The US shutdown means air traffic controllers are about to miss their second paycheck. This past weekend, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published warnings about large swaths of airports or airspace in the U.S. experiencing delays due to staffing shortages.

Pressure on the air traffic system will continue to increase ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel season — and could come to a near-total standstill — if the ongoing shutdown forces controllers to continue working without pay, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Sunday.

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As part of FAA restrictions, some major U.S. airports are limiting access for private jets.

Government-imposed cuts to daily flight volumes will begin to increase from 6am on Tuesday, with airlines being forced to cancel 6% of their services, compared to 4% since last Friday. This total could reach 10% of daily flights by next Friday.

The mandatory cuts do not directly affect international flights, but passengers connecting to or from trips outside the US are still impacted. Aircraft from foreign companies are forced to join the queues of several dozen American domestic flights waiting on the runway to take off due to lack of personnel.

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The disruptions will increase costs for airlines due to certain unavoidable expenses such as pilot salaries, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts George Ferguson and Melissa Balzano wrote in a note. At the same time, the shutdown could also improve margins for domestic airlines in the fourth quarter as companies eliminate smaller, unprofitable routes.

“If the reduction lasts beyond the short term, it should result in higher fares, especially for business class, which should benefit United, American and Delta,” they said.

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