The former president () completes one hundred days under house arrest this Wednesday (12), under fear of transfer to one and while facing political weakening.
The last few months have been marked by disputes and: from the split between the center and the right in the episode of tariffs imposed by , with (PL-SP) as the protagonist, to 2026, involving another son of the former president, (PL-RJ).
In an interview with Sheet At the end of March, Bolsonaro said that prison would mean the end of his life. At the time, he was still free, active in the party, traveling around the country. His argument involved the fact that he was 70 years old and that the accusation had crimes that carried decades of punishment.
Now, he faces prison in Brasília, to serve his sentence for 27 years and three months for leading the 2022 coup plot.
Bolsonaro’s first appeal was from the First Panel of the (Supreme Federal Court) — in judgment in the virtual plenary that will officially end on Friday (14). The defense must try new appeals, but the expectation is that the court will consider the action closed by December.
Members of the Bolsonaro family have told allies that he is apprehensive about the possibility of having to serve a sentence in a closed regime — the decision will be up to the minister, rapporteur of the case.
The former president has made jokes with visitors and has maintained a physical exercise routine, but there are also reports of a crestfallen Bolsonaro, who spends the day in shorts and flip-flops and refers to the electronic ankle bracelet as humiliation. His friends see a direct relationship with his emotional condition as the STF’s final word approaches.
Renato Bolsonaro, his brother, said last Friday (7) that, if the former president is sent to Papuda, it is because the courts want him to.
Today, some of Bolsonaro’s interlocutors already admit the possibility of the STF referring him, at least for a short period, to Papuda. Afterwards, for health reasons, he would return to home care. This thesis gained strength after Moraes was sent to prison.
Another possibility would be for Bolsonaro to go to a room in the Federal Police superintendence, as happened with (PT) in Curitiba. The hypothesis of him being transferred to a military installation is now considered the least likely, despite him being a captain.
If Bolsonaro’s transfer to the closed regime is carried out, that of supporters. There has been no organization in this regard to date, given the difficulty in articulating the group with the imprisoned leader and the dispute over his electoral spoils.
Eduardo Bolsonaro’s stay has become a factor of instability for the group. From there, he reinforces criticism of allies, especially right-wing governors, such as Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), radicalizes the speech and threatens to launch himself into the Presidency, even if from a distance.
Another frequent target of the deputy is the president of the PP and senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), .
The center and wings of the PL defend that Bolsonaro announces a successor this year to run for the Palácio do Planalto from the right.
The former president’s children, however, have rebelled against those who seek to speak openly about the election without Bolsonaro, who, in addition to being arrested, is ineligible. The former first lady and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) said in recent days that the former president
Some interlocutors seek to calm the spirits of both sides: they ask the right to unite and to hold the fight until 2027. They also minimize public discussions, saying that they only occur because divergence is allowed in the PL.
In practice, splits spread wherever there are opinions that do not completely coincide with those of the clan. In Santa Catarina, one of the most pocket-friendly states in the country, the most
Rio de Janeiro councilor Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) intends to run as a candidate for the Senate for Santa Catarina, as determined by his father, who sees his son as more protected from the Judiciary in this way. Part of the right was resentful of the movement, the consequence of which was to block another pre-candidate for the Senate, deputy Carol de Toni (PL-SC). Accusations of infidelity and betrayal were directed towards the state deputy and her friend Ana Campagnolo (PL-SC).
The leave-disso group says that the internal fights help Lula, who has already improved in the polls and is the strongest name for 2026. When Bolsonaro was arrested in August, the PT member was not so well positioned in the polls.
Last month, Lula even approached Trump, until then aligned with the Bolsonarists, to open negotiations on tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. The discourse of sovereignty and defense of Brazil is seen as an asset by Palácio do Planalto, because it cost Bolsonarism much of its popularity.
