Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has issued a stark warning about the United States’ rising national debt, saying that if the current path of public spending continues without strong economic expansion, “there will be a reckoning.”
In an interview with The David Rubenstein Show, conducted by billionaire and Carlyle co-founder, David Rubenstein, the executive was asked about the current level of debt — which already reaches US$38 trillion. “Some people would say that’s a lot,” Rubenstein noted.
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Solomon said the people he talks to are concerned not just about the size of the debt, but the rate at which it has grown over the past five years — and “it seems like we don’t have the ability to reduce it.”
He argued that aggressive fiscal stimulus has become “baked in” to the functioning of democratic economies.
He noted that debt has grown considerably since the 2008 financial crisis, jumping from about $10 trillion that year to more than three times that amount today.
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The situation worsened further in 2025, with the Peter G. Peterson Foundation calculating that the jump from $37 to $38 trillion was the fastest since the pandemic. “Adding trillion after trillion to debt and making a Budget in the midst of crises is no way for a great nation like the US to manage its finances,” said Michael Petersen, the entity’s CEO, in a statement to Fortune on October 22, shortly after the Treasury confirmed the new record.
Solomon declared that if the government continues to refinance its debt at current rates, the total is expected to grow even further, reaching “the forty-something trillion, for sure.”
The way to avoid the crisis: growth, not revenue
The executive highlighted that the solution to this enormous debt is not, mainly, in tax increases or new sources of revenue. According to him, the “revenue path” is less viable than the “growth path”.
Increasing the US economic growth rate would be essential, he said, highlighting the “monstrous” difference between a 3% compound debt rate (which grows over the entire accumulated amount from previous years) and simple 2% growth in the economy (which only considers the previous year).
Solomon showed optimism about the growth potential, citing technological advances in companies as a productivity factor that can improve prospects.
He also mentioned the boom in investment in infrastructure: six or seven large companies are expected to spend around US$350 billion this year in this area alone. Recent changes in regulatory policy, focusing only on what is “truly necessary and effective”, would also be a positive boost.
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Solomon has been optimistic about artificial intelligence throughout 2025, although he recognizes the risk of bubbles in part of the stock market.
In October, during a conference in Turin (Italy) — where Jeff Bezos also spoke on the topic — he stated that he did not know “exactly what a bubble is or is not”, but highlighted that “it is no different this time… there will be a lot of capital invested that will not bring a return”.
Short-term economy and political instability
Despite long-term concerns, Solomon assessed the immediate economic situation positively, saying “the economy is in good shape right now” and that the momentum forces are outweighing the obstacles, making the chance of a recession low in the near term.
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Regarding political instability, he noted that unpredictability is constant in any government, and that the role of business leaders is to “adapt, adjust and deal with it”. He also highlighted the importance of the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US Central Bank)which, according to him, “has served us very well” on a global scale.
Solomon isn’t the only executive concerned about the U.S.’s dependence on debt. Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of the Bridgewater fund, has already warned that if debt continues to grow, the country will face an “economic heart attack”. Dalio compares the problem to the accumulation of “plaques” in the arteries — a metaphor he has repeated for years.
Other leaders also see this behavior of delaying payments as a symptom of a national mindset.
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Allan Merrill, CEO of the construction company Beazer Homes, criticized at the ResiDay conference the attitude of “wanting things without paying for them now, leaving others to pay for them in the future”. Merrill cited that he pays around US$140,000 just in permits to build in Northern California and concluded: “We have been irresponsible.”
Finally, Solomon emphasized that the US needs to continue finding buyers to finance its debt. And he warned: if it continues to grow, “at some point, it will no longer be other countries that will have to resolve the American fiscal situation. If it continues like this, it will be us.”
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