Statements by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) about the mega police operation in Rio de Janeiro had a negative impact on the government’s perception, according to an analysis by the director of the Quaest institute, Felipe Nunes.
The researcher states that Lula’s speech, suggesting that , had a bad impact and interrupted the trajectory of improvement in the president’s popularity observed since July.
“Lula’s speeches about the operation in Rio had a bad impact. In the country, 81% disagreed with the statement — a similar proportion to that seen in Rio de Janeiro a week ago”, said Nunes in a publication on X.
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The Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (12), shows that Lula’s approval fell and disapproval rose again, reversing the positive trend recorded over the last four months. The indices now indicate a technical draw, the same scenario seen in October.
What weighed in the evaluation
According to Nunes, three factors explain the result. Among the positive points for the government are the improvement in the perception of inflation — the portion of the population that considers that prices have risen fell from 63% to 58% — and Lula’s meeting with Donald Trump, which raised the president’s image among part of the electorate.
However, the talk about the operation in Rio carried more weight: 81% of those interviewed disagreed with the statement about drug traffickers, and 57% also rejected Lula’s assessment that the police action was “disastrous”.
Retreat among independent voters
The impact was stronger among the independent electorate, who say “neither Lulista nor Bolsonarista”. In this group, disapproval rose from 48% to 52%, while approval fell from 46% to 43%. It is the first consistent pullback since August 2025.
For Nunes, the issue of public security disrupted the progress that had been driven by economic agendas.
“If the tariff changed the trajectory of approval in favor of Lula, the public security agenda interrupted the government’s belated honeymoon with the independent electorate”, he assessed.
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