São Paulo (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest, to be harvested next year, was estimated at a record 70.7 million bags, an increase of 13.5% compared to the previous cycle, with a recovery in the productivity of Arabica crops that could provide relief to the tight global market, financial services company StoneX said on Thursday (13).
If the projection is confirmed, it would surpass the best result ever achieved by Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter, in the 2020/21 cycle. That year, the country harvested 67.6 million 60 kg bags, the historic maximum to date, considering both species (arabica and camphor).
“Based on our historical series, if it is actually confirmed, it would be a record… Of course, this depends on the weather, any problem could impact production. Several stages are still to come, but it is a scenario of improvement in supply,” specialist Fernando Maximiliano, from StoneX, told Reuters this Thursday.
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Despite the expected recovery, the volume is still below the maximum potential that could be reached under ideal weather conditions. There were, for example, problems during the flowering phase recently, StoneX noted.
In 2020/21, Brazil harvested more Arabica coffee than projected for next year, a sign that production in 2026/27 would have the potential to advance further.
The consultancy estimates the production of Arabica coffee at 47.2 million bags in 2026, an annual increase of 29.3%, while that of canephoras (conilon and Robusta), which was a record in 2025, would fall 8.9% in the annual comparison to 23.5 million bags.
In 2020, Brazil harvested 47.6 million bags of arabica and 20 million canephoras.
Next year, production in Minas Gerais, the main arabica producing state in Brazil, is expected to grow in all regions, just as São Paulo (second in the ranking) is expected to see a considerable increase of 75.6%, according to StoneX.
The South of Minas, the country’s largest coffee region, will see an increase of 21.1%, to 17.2 million bags. “Despite the good performance in several areas, the delay and irregularity of the rains generated uneven flowering, limiting the full harvest result,” said StoneX.
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The advance in São Paulo is driven by areas returning from “zero harvest”, after pruning, and new plantings, “although the aborted flowering and the dry climate still cause concern”.
The 2026/27 harvest, according to StoneX, will also see recovery in Rondônia, which grows the so-called Amazon Robusta. Production there is expected to grow 32%, to 3.3 million bags.
In Espírito Santo, on the other hand, conilon coffee production is expected to fall by 15%, to 16.3 million bags.
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“After a record harvest in 25/26, the north of Espírito Santo is expected to register a decline… The decline is attributed to the structural management of crops, physiological wear on plants and limited flowering set due to cold winds and rains in the critical period”, indicated the report.
Regarding Rondônia, the consultancy also cited recovery of crops and favorable climate during flowering, as well as expansion of cultivated areas and the renewal of the coffee park.
Relief
The 2026 harvest in the country is considered important to replenish stocks, after harvests below potential in recent years.
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“This means relief for the market. After years with serious supply problems, the 2026 harvest could begin to replenish stocks,” said Maximiliano, preferring not to comment on export projections.
The period between 2021 and 2024 was marked by consecutive deficits in the global coffee balance, which reduced world stocks by more than 22 million bags, according to the consultancy.
Despite the limitations imposed by the climate, Brazil should reinforce its “role” as the main global coffee supplier, if the harvest is confirmed, said StoneX.
