The president (PT) reduced the advantage he maintained in the second round simulations for the 2026 election and is now technically tied with the former president (), according to a new round of the Genial/Quaest survey.
The PT member appears with 42%, compared to 39% for Bolsonaro — a difference within the margin of error of two percentage points. In October, Lula scored 46% against the former president, who registered 36%.
Despite being sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison in the case of the 2022 coup attempt and the ineligibility imposed by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), Bolsonaro remains included in the scenarios tested.
Lula leads numerically in all other simulated second-round clashes. Against Ciro Gomes (PDT), he scores 38% compared to 33% for the former minister. Against (Republicans), it has 41% to 36%. He also appears ahead of Ratinho Jr. (PSD), by 40% to 35%; from Romeu Zema (Novo), by 43% to 36%; by Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), by 42% to 35%; by Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), by 44% to 35%; from (PL-SP), by 43% to 33%; by Eduardo Leite (PSD), by 41% to 28%.
The research tested for the first time the name of Renan Santos (Missão), future president of the newly created acronym linked to the MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre). He would lose to Lula by 42% to 25%.
In the first round scenarios, Lula leads in all ten simulations tested, and his voting intention fluctuates depending on the set of opponents presented.
The survey shows that the majority of the electorate resists the possibility of Lula seeking a new term: 59% say the president should not run for re-election in 2026, and 38% argue that he should run for office. In the last round of the survey, 42% were supporters and 56% were against.
Another segment of the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (12), showed that management had a .
The numbers were released in the wake of repercussions after the police operation that left 121 people dead in Rio de Janeiro, placing public safety at the center of discussions.
One of Lula’s statements that had the most impact was that “drug dealers are also victims of users”. After the negative reaction, the president recanted saying he had made “a poorly placed sentence”.
In the case of Bolsonaro, 67% say that the former president should give up the race and support another name, compared to 26% who defend that he continues to present himself as a candidate — in October, the rates were 76% and 18%, respectively.
The survey also asked what, in Brazilians’ opinion, would be the best result for the country in 2026. According to the survey, 24% say they prefer a name that is not linked to either Lula or Bolsonaro, and 17% defend the election of someone from outside politics.
Another 23% consider that the best scenario would be for Lula to win again. The chance of Bolsonaro becoming eligible again and winning appears at 15%, followed by someone supported by the former president (11%) and someone supported by Lula (5%). Another 5% were unable to answer.
Data on knowledge and voting potential show that the Bolsonaro family has numerically higher rejection rates among independents, a segment that does not directly identify with any of the political poles.
The survey takes place amidst a scenario of internal splits on the right, which is trying to build unity after Bolsonaro’s conviction and the difficulty of consolidating an alternative name. Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) are mentioned as potential candidates, but face resistance from Bolsonarist sectors.
Among these voters, 73% say they know and do not vote for Jair Bolsonaro, 70% reject Michelle Bolsonaro, and 80% say they would not vote for Eduardo Bolsonaro. Lula also records high rejection in this group (64%).
The Genial/Quaest survey interviewed 2,004 people between November 6th and 9th, in 120 municipalities. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with 95% confidence. For independent voters, the margin of error is 4 points, plus or minus.
