The Ranking of Politicians, an institution that measures the government’s positions, carried out a survey showing that there is a majority expectation among deputies and senators that no policy measure will be approved.
At the same time, there is a feeling among some parliamentarians that there is a chance of passing a sentence reduction in 2026.
In , 36.5% of the deputies consulted assessed that “no measure will be approved” related to the amnesty of those involved in the acts of January 8th.
A significant part, however, is betting on some type of benefit: 18.7% believe that there will be a reduction in sentences in 2026, while 13.1% believe in this possibility in 2025.
The expectation for a broad amnesty is lower: only 7.5% foresee its approval this year, and 12.1% believe it is possible in 2026. Furthermore, 12.1% did not know or did not respond.
In , there is greater skepticism: 48.2% of members of the House do not see any chance of approving the amnesty, while 29.6% are betting on a reduction in sentences in 2026 and only 3.7% this year.
Only 7.4% of senators defend a broad amnesty until 2026 and 3.7% believe that it will be possible to approve it in 2025. 7.4% are undecided.
“The research diagnosis reveals that, despite the topic being sensitive, there is a clear tendency towards prudence among deputies and senators. The analysis excerpts highlight that the expectation that no amnesty measure will be approved predominates, but a significant portion points to a reduction in sentences, especially for 2026”, says Luan Sperandio, director of operations at the Ranking of Politicians.
The survey, carried out between October 21st and 31st, heard 107 federal deputies from 20 parties and 27 senators from 12 parties, respecting the criterion of party proportionality. The margin of error is plus or minus 2%.
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