Treasury reduces GDP growth projection for 2025 to 2.2%

The SPE (Economic Policy Secretariat) of the Ministry of Finance revised the 2025 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth projection for 2025 to 2.2% in November. The estimate is contained in that of the government’s economic team (PT). Here is the presentation (PDF – 1 MB).

For 2026, the Finance Minister’s team maintained the economic growth estimate at 2.4%. The projections are used by the government to prepare the Bimonthly Income and Expense Assessment Report.

The government is more optimistic than financial market agents, who expect a 2.16% increase in GDP this year, according to the Focus Bulletin. For 20226, analysts estimate an increase of 1.78%.

The government’s projections are also higher than those of the (Central Bank). The monetary authority reduced the estimate for September. For 2026, it expects an increase of 1.5%.

The SPE signaled that there was frustration in the GDP of the 3rd quarter of 2025. The economic team revised the projections for the sectors this year:

• Agriculture: from +8.3% to +9.5;
• Industry: from +1.4% to +1.3%;
• Services: 2.1% to 1.9%;

INFLATION

The secretariat reduced the estimate for the annualized rate of the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) from 4.8% to 4.6%, which measures the country’s official inflation. He stated that the reduction is due to the slowdown in the prices of food and industrial goods.

The economic team said that the prices of meat, coffee and milk put downward pressure on inflation. “We lastwe spend months, with less expectationinflation may also be associated with a slowdown in the pace of economic growth.”the report said.

Despite the low, the projection indicates that inflation will be outside the target range, which is 3% and with a tolerance of up to 4.5%.

“It is important to note that these forecasts consider a yellow tariff flag for electricity in December. If, however, the flag is green, the chances of inflation within the target range increase in 2025”he told SPE.