The doubts of American investors regarding the technology sector are beginning to infect the Spanish market. The European stock markets have accelerated their falls, and the Ibex is down 2%. The punishment of Oracle or Nvidia is unleashing a flight from risk that is transferred to other assets, and is reflected in debt, where a moderation in the yields of US bonds is observed. This market suspicion, which is expressed most crudely in the assets that have risen the most this year, coincides with the , which will give rise to a binge of figures that may either show a weak economy or cool the outlook for interest rates. The market, which two weeks ago assumed a Federal Reserve cut in December, now only calculates a 50% probability.
The red opening of Wall Street worsens the losses in all European stock markets. The Nasdaq fell 1.5% in the early stages of the session and the Dow Jones fell 1%. The drop in the technology index adds to yesterday’s drop of 2.3%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.8%, the French Cac fell 1.7% and the German Dax fell 1.7%.
Although the weekly balance of the markets is positive for all the major indices, except for the American Nasdaq whose losses are limited, volatility has established itself in the market, with technology in the focus. Nvidia, the largest listed company in the world, fell 7% between Tuesday and Thursday, but on Monday it marked strong gains. The market’s nerves are on edge after weeks in which calls for caution regarding a possible technological bubble have multiplied. “Markets seem to be very spooked by fears of an AI bubble,” Vishnu Varathan, head of macro analysis at Mizuho, told Bloomberg. “Technology, which typically tends to be more sensitive to Fed easing.”
European technology companies lead the cuts, with Infineon dropping 5.4% and SAP subtracting 4.6%. This instability is also noticeable in the , where only Telefónica and Naturgy show limited profits. Investors punish, on the contrary, renewable firms (Acciona and Acciona Energía fell 11% and 8.7%, respectively; , 2%), real estate companies (Colonial fell more than 6% and ) and, in general, the entire market, with banks falling between 3.7% for Sabadell and 2.3% for Bankinter.
Another negative aspect is the rise in oil, up to 3% at the worst moments of the session, after Ukraine’s attack on a Russian terminal in the Black Sea that is key for crude oil exports (even though the country is subject to international sanctions). A rise that has moderated to 1% mid-session.
In the debt market, despite the lower prospects for Fed rate cuts, risk aversion is lowering US debt yields. The ten-year bond yield drops to 4.07% and the two-year bond yield moderates to 3.55%. The dollar rises slightly against the euro, although it remains at 1.16 units for each single currency. And the greater perception of risk timidly widens European risk premiums, with the Italian bond rising four points compared to two for the German or three for the Spanish.
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