Global spending on imports is expected to rise by nearly 8% year-on-year in 2025, with the increase driven by prices of coffee and cocoa, goods bought mainly by rich countries, while prices of cereals and sugar have fallen, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report released today.
Imports of staple foods are forecast to reach $2.22 trillion this year, marking the second straight year of growth after a brief decline in 2023.
What is the reason for the increase?
This increase is largely due to higher prices for high-value products such as coffee, cocoa, tea and spices, whose import prices have risen by an average of 34.5% but face strong demand, FAO explains in its report on world food markets.
Also the increase is partly due to adverse weather conditions affecting many large producer countries (Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam for coffee and Ivory Coast and Ghana for cocoa).
The value of dairy imports is also expected to increase by 16.4% in 2025, driven by demand and reduced supply due to erratic weather, increased production costs and local epizootics.
Conversely, lower cereal and sugar prices moderate the level of spending.
Costs for food imports
Spending on food imports for low-income countries is therefore expected to decline “slightly” compared to 2024 (0.2%) and to have a “small increase” in sub-Saharan Africa.
However, less developed countries are experiencing a sharp increase in their spending on oils and beverages.
Going forward, even if coffee and cocoa prices and supply chain costs are expected to decrease, “weather volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and difficult economic conditions maintain the risk of high import costs, particularly for vulnerable regions,” FAO warns.
In the near future, abundant harvests of cereals feed the market: corn, wheat, rice…., notes the FAO, which also predicts a “significant” increase in demand for wheat and, in particular, rice.
The rate of consumption of vegetable oils is expected to outpace production, with lower soybean production due to reduced cultivation in Argentina, India, Ukraine and the US.
The dangers behind the evidence
“The recovery in global food production is a positive turning point for market stability,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.
“However, behind these figures, there remain ongoing risks, such as extreme weather conditions or fragile trade relations, which could rapidly reshape global supply and demand,” he adds.
In addition, with regard to fertilizers, FAO points out that their consumption increased in the 2024/25 cropping season, after a period of reduced use linked to price and availability issues.
In September, the price of a basket of benchmark fertilizers was $489 a tonne, down 40% from the record price of April 2022, but still above 2024 levels.
