House of Representatives prepares vote on Epstein files. What will happen?

Either way, it will be one of the most fascinating votes in a long time.

Next week is expected to bring the moment that the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has been postponing in one way or another for almost four months: the vote on the release of Jeffrey Epstein’s files.

It was at the end of July that Johnson declared the House’s five-week break to contain a growing Republican revolt. He later kept the House out of session for an unusually long period during the government shutdown. This had the benefit – intentional or not – of giving him an excuse not to swear in the crucial 218th member to force a vote on the Epstein files.

US President Donald Trump clearly didn’t want that vote either. Trump unsuccessfully waged an unsuccessful campaign last Wednesday to convince the small group of Republicans who signed the “petition to unblock” the files.

The vote, however, is getting closer, now that Johnson has announced plans to schedule it for next week. Having said that, what happens next? What could the vote mean? And what are the political dynamics?

It’s not the end of the line, but it’s clearly a significant moment that could give the Epstein saga a new direction.

The first thing to highlight is that, despite the resistance, this vote is not really the final objective. It’s not like the House passed the bill and suddenly the Justice Department released all the Epstein case files. The bill still has to be approved by the Senate and promulgated by the president.

But there is clearly a reason why Johnson and the government did not want the vote. The fear seems to be that this 1) creates a very difficult decision for many congressional Republicans and 2) could pressure the Senate and administration to follow suit – especially if it passes by a wide margin in the House.

And the big margin seems to be what many are predicting. CNN reported this week that House Republican leadership expects mass defections. The unblocking petition’s lead Republican co-author, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, isn’t exactly dissuading expectations either. Massie set one from the House, or nearly 290 votes if all members are present. This is the minimum number of legislators to support the measure necessary for it to overcome a presidential veto.

“If we somehow get two-thirds of the vote here in the House, that will put a lot of pressure on the Senate, and if the Senate passes it, it will be a very serious step for the president,” Massie told CNN.

This would, in fact, be a very symbolic victory. Not only would it demonstrate that a large bipartisan majority of the House wants the files released, but it would also suggest that the lower house of Congress could, in fact, override Trump’s attempt to block it – regardless of whether the saga reaches that point or not. This would require about 75 of the 219 Republicans in the House, if all Democrats voted in favor.

Several Republicans have already said they will vote for the bill, despite not supporting Massie’s filibuster petition. (Only four Republicans signed the petition.)

At the same time, we are also seeing how all of this could start to have repercussions in the Senate, with Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana quickly signaling on Thursday that the Republican Party must opt ​​for full transparency. Previously, Kennedy had voted against an initial attempt by Democratic senators to force the release of the files.

“I simply don’t think this issue is going to go away until it is addressed and answered in a way that is satisfactory to the American people,” . “And I may end up saying this, but that’s how I see it.”

These House members clearly face a difficult vote, with compelling dynamics pushing them in both directions.

Among the dynamics that pressure them to vote against is loyalty to Trump, which is the current currency in the current Republican Party. Trump has made it very clear that he will remember how each of these members voted.

“Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into this trap,” on social media, adding that “there should be no diversions to Epstein or anything else.”

Voting for the bill would be a significant rebuke to Trump and Johnson, who have explicitly fought against it. It would suggest that the other steps taken – such as the House Oversight Committee’s release of some Epstein materials obtained from his estate – were simply not enough. Congressional Republicans.

Republican leadership also has reason to try to limit defections, given the level of pressure this could put on the Senate.

On the other hand, there are, however, many dynamics pressuring members to vote in favor of the bill. The main one is how they would explain the vote to their voters. The fact is that the vast majority of Americans want all files released, are unhappy with the lack of transparency to date, and expect the files to contain significant information.

According to one in September, 77% of Americans want all files released, as long as the victims’ names are withheld. A previous survey had shown that 89% of respondents said the government should disclose all information.

Others show that the vast majority of Americans believe that damaging information about powerful people is contained in the files and that the government has not been transparent enough about the case.

Given all this, voting against the release of the records could give the impression that they are part of a cover-up – a pedophilia cover-up. What if the information ends up coming to light anyway, and perhaps even includes important data? Who wants to be one of the people who voted against this transparency?

This brings us to another fundamental dynamic. At some point, the Republicans who once led the campaign for the release of the Epstein files — at least until the Trump administration reversed its position this summer — may simply conclude that it will happen one way or another.

CNN’s Annie Grayer and Kristen Holmes on Friday that a Trump ally on Capitol Hill told the president directly that he questioned the strategy of continuing to delay and downplay the situation.

Indeed, Trump, who has not been accused of any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein, has questioned many ways about what the files might reveal about his own closeness to the convicted sex offender, fighting the transparency his administration has promised on the matter. (On Friday, Trump pressed the issue of Epstein’s connections to high-ranking figures — but this investigation could be yet another obstacle to the possible release of the Justice Department files.)

At some point, lawmakers may resent the government’s handling of all this so poorly and see this vote as an opportunity to force the issue and hopefully get past this after months of this situation hanging over their heads.

Either way, it will be one of the most fascinating votes in a long time.