Some 15.7 million Chileans begin this Sunday the path of presidential renewal in March 2026. They have the possibility to choose between eight candidates. Polls predict a second round on December 14 between the former minister Jeannette Jarastandard bearer of the left and the center-left, and one of the three representatives of a radical right in the case of José Antonio Kast y Johannes Kaiserwhile Evelyn Mattheidaughter of a member of the dictator’s Military Junta Augusto Pinochetis presented as a version more attached to the historical conservative space. This Sunday is, therefore, also a primary for the right.
If the polls are not wrong, Jara will compete with any of these candidates who, in one way or another, feel political or economic identification with that regime that retained power between 1973 and 1990. A kind of neopinochetism can return to the Mint by vote. “Chile is heading towards a sharp turn to the right”he pointed out The Economist. The impression of the British magazine is shared by numerous analysts on the basis of simple arithmetic: Jara can prevail in the first round, but it would be truly miraculous that he would do so weeks later before Kast, Matthei and even Kaiser, the most bombastic of all, if any of these candidates manage to retain the support of their fellow travelers.
The progressive bloc formed by the Government of President Gabriel Boric and the center-left has a very difficult test. The polls prior to the election showed Jara at best with 32% of voting intentions. Kast follows her closely, but in recent weeks the weighting towards Kaiser, called “the Chilean (Javier) Milei”. The horizon of possibilities for Boric’s critical heir has also been restricted because part of the old Democratic Concertation that governed uninterruptedly between 1990, when the country recovered its institutions, and 2010, resists giving its support to a communist one. The former Christian Democratic president, Eduardo Freiis the most eloquent face of that aversion, in open defiance of his own party where other leaders called for vote for Matthei as “lesser evil”. Not even Jara’s manifest moderation moves these hearts.
Closing of cycle
The elections can definitively close the cycle that began in 2019 with a social outbreak of large proportions against the right-wing president Sebastian Piñera. That street revolt was routed through a Constituent Assembly. The drafted Magna Carta, tilted to the left in an unprecedented turn, was rejected in a popular consultation. An attempt was made to draft another Magna Carta, this time under right-wing predominance, and it had the same fate at the polls. A new conservative majority is now trying to put these years of oscillations behind it. While the left remains strong in large urban areas and unions, the ideas of Kast, Kaiser and Matthei reach a reception unthinkable six years ago. Many of those who came out to protest then decided to forget about the anti-liberal slogans to give them a vote of confidence.
Data and realities
Chile’s GDP will grow this year between 2.2% and 2.75%according to estimates from the Central Bank. The rate of inflation of the last quarter it will be 4.3%. The rate of poverty It is 22.3%. For many years there was talk of the “Chilean miracle” due to its constant economic growth. This sustained prosperity never resolved deep social issues. A recent OECD report reveals that inequality of opportunity is one of the highest among member countries. Chile is part of that group where access to a better quality of life depends largely on the conditions of origin. According to World Inequality Data, The richest 1% of the population owns 36.6% of wealth concentrated in companies, land, mines, banks and financial capital. The richest 10% receives 57.3% of the income, while the poorest 50% receives only 6.7% of that total.
However, The dominant theme of the electoral campaign was not the distribution of wealth but rather insecurity. “He who doesn’t jump is paco (military police),” was chanted at the closing of Jara’s activities. The opponents propose just the opposite: many more “pacos” in the streets and with free availability to shoot at the slightest suspicion.
The feeling of citizen insecurity in Chile is the fifth highest in the world according to the Gallup company’s 2025 Global Report carried out in 144 countries. The fear is only surpassed by the inhabitants of Zimbawe, Chad, Myanmar and Eswatini. The Ipsos company, for its part, reports that in its survey in 29 countries it shows that Chile occupies first place in the perception of increase in crime during the last year, around 70%, double the world average.
The Global Peace Index prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace considers, however, that the same country is ranked 62 out of 163 in which the security issue has been measured. In an article published on the portal The Counter, The consultant and lawyer Alejandro Reyes Vergara focused on the “abysmal difference with victimization or real experience.” He regretted that “some candidates abuse this distorted perception of insecurity and magnify it, because it is an issue that generates strong emotions of threat, fear, anguish and anger, which mobilize votes.” And he added about that asymmetry between what happens and what is felt: ” Do they have us misinformed?“Who does it? For what? Who is it good for?” Kast’s partisan advertising begins with the sound of a siren: the promise of order from the “pacos.”
Pinochet back on stage
Astride this problem, which in turn has a xenophobic response with Venezuelan migrants as scapegoats, Pinochet has emerged from his grave to find a shameless demand. ““He saved us from a government like Maduro’s in Chile.”said Kaiser, also in favor of pardoning military prisoners for having violated human rights. Kaiser has made a strong symbolic gesture at the end of the campaign. When the National Anthem was played, it included a verse that was sung during the dictatorship: “Your names, brave soldierswho have been the support of Chile, our breasts have them engraved; Our children will know them too.” The digital site Ex-Ante revealed that pins with the figure of the late general are sold in Santiago. Kast has toned down his enthusiasm for Pinochet but not the recognition: “For me it was not a dictatorship, because dictatorships remain in power”. And it was not “a dictatorship” among other reasons because his brother Miguel, born in Germany, held an important government position.
Matthei does not dislike that regime either. “We were going straight to Cuba. What I want to point out is that probably at the beginning, in 1973 and 1974, it was quite inevitable that there would be deaths, but already in ’78, ’82, when they continue to occur, there no longer, because there was control of the territory,” said Matthei. And he added in this regard: “So there I feel that there were people who did a lot of damage, crazy people who took charge and that no one stopped them in time.” His father, General Fernando Mattheihas remained in Chilean history for being the first member of the Military Junta that recognized the victory of the opposition in the plebiscite of October 1988 with which Pinochet tried to perpetuate himself in a power that, almost 40 years later, can return to the hands of the forces that supported him then, accompanied by the vote of those who did not live through those years of horror.
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