Chile is holding a presidential election this Sunday marked by uncertainty and volatility. Left-wing candidate Jeanette Jara appears in the lead in the first round, but faces an adverse scenario in the projections for the second stage of the dispute.
A survey by Atlas Intel released on Friday the 14th places Jara with 32.1% of voting intentions, followed by José Antonio Kast, with 18.1%, in addition to Johannes Kaiser, Evelyn Matthei and Franco Parisi, all with percentages close to each other.
With eight names in contention, the initial stage is unlikely to define the winner. The same research also shows Jara being defeated in all simulated second round scenarios, including against Kast and Matthei. The survey also records a drop compared to June, when it was 38%.
Continues after advertising
Also read:
New change of political axis in sight?
The possibility of the leader of the first round losing the final election is connected to a phenomenon described by the newspaper The Countrywhich identifies a pattern of alternation in command of the country over the last 20 years. According to the publication, no president has been able to transfer the position to a successor with the same political alignment since 2006, which reinforces the perception of a distrustful electorate and inclined to punish those who govern.
If the second round confirms the advantage of right-wing names, Chile will repeat this pendulum movement, ending the period of Gabriel Boric’s governing coalition and opening the way for a new conservative cycle. El País’ analysis points out that this oscillation is associated with the distance between parties and society, in addition to the accumulated wear and tear after years of social tensions and frustrated constitutional processes.
Constitution, political wear and tear and electoral uncertainty
The last few years were marked by two frustrated attempts to reform the Constitution inherited from the dictatorship, rejected by the population in 2022 and 2023. These episodes increased the perception of political impasse and contributed to the drop in confidence in institutions, directly affecting Boric’s government, which maintains high rejection rates according to the Centro de Estudios Públicos.
The return of mandatory voting adds unpredictability, increasing the number of voters called to the polls to more than 15 million. Part of this group shows low party loyalty, which makes it more difficult to predict who will advance to the decisive phase with an advantage.
The Atlas Intel survey surveyed 3,118 voters between November 10 and 14 and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Continues after advertising
