First round. This November 16, the elections will be held in Chile, which will renew the entire Chamber of Deputies (155) and half of the Senate (25 of the 50). Regarding the presidential election, it is highly probable – practically a certainty – that none of the candidates will achieve the necessary support (50% plus one of the votes) to directly win the Presidency this Sunday for the period 2026-2030. Therefore, there will be a second round, scheduled for next December 14.
Only four with real options. There are those who will be on the ballot, but only four have real options. From left to right, they are: (communist militant, sole candidate of President Gabriel Boric’s ruling party), (of the UDI, candidate of the traditional right grouped in Chile Vamos, plus the centrist Yellow and Democratic forces), (leader of the Republican Party, of the conservative far-right) and (of the National Libertarian Party, far-right). One unknown is the position reached by the populist candidate, who in this third attempt to reach La Moneda reached, according to the surveys, around 10%, so he would be in fifth place. If he beats one of the right-wing candidates and comes fourth, it will be a surprise and good news for the People’s Party he leads.
Who goes to the ballot. The polls, at least before the ban on disclosing them began on November 1, show that Jara will come first and Kast second, so both would be in the second round in one more month. Therefore, if this scenario does not occur on Sunday night, it will be surprising. ? It cannot be completely ruled out – in the poll averages it was only four points below, according to Electoral Radar – but it does not seem likely. In any case, it is an open scenario. And can Kast beat Jara and come first? In politics nothing is impossible, but this scenario does not seem likely either, given that Jara has the support of most of the Chilean left and at least the supporters of President Boric, who total around a stable 30%.
The relative importance of arriving first. It is important to obtain the first majority, although this fact does not have a necessary correlation with the second round. Everything suggests that Jara will obtain the highest percentage of support this 16th, which does not mean that he has better chances of beating Kast in the runoff, at least according to what the polls showed before the ban. It is expected that there will be between five and nine points of distance this Sunday between Jara and Kast – between first and second – so outside this range it will be considered striking.
If Kast doesn’t pass. In the unlikely scenario that Kast does not go to the runoff, but instead, the transfer of votes from the right is not completely assured thinking about the second round. That is to say, not all of the right will vote for Kaiser. For Jara, this appears to be the best scenario: having the libertarian and not the Republican in charge on December 14. But even so, against Kaiser, Jara would not win, at least according to the polls.
The dispute for third and fourth place. The dispute for third and fourth place is open. A few weeks ago, it seemed like a fact that Matthei would come third, but this picture was called into question with Kaiser’s increase that the polls began to show before November 1. If Kaiser and not Matthei stay in third place, it will be a big blow for Chile Vamos, of the traditional right. Not to mention that Matthei came fifth and was surpassed by Parisi. Does she have options to go to the runoff? Very few, although his supporters appeal to the last-minute moderate vote that will not lean towards one or an ultra like Kast.
Second round. There is no opinion poll that has shown a victory for Jara over any of the right-wing candidates in the second round. An open question is whether this scenario could be reversed in four weeks, until December 14. On the left itself they accept that the challenge is very complex.
Parliament. Of maximum relevance will be the parliamentary election. According to Unholster’s projections, the right would reach a majority in both the Senate (85 out of 155) and the Senate (26 out of 50), something that has not occurred in this country for 20 years. According to this analysis, the main increase will be the pact between Kast’s Republicans and Kaiser’s libertarians, which would go from 15 to 29 deputies and from no senators in 2017 – when the same constituencies were elected as now – to two. Meanwhile, the report from LarraínVial, a firm dedicated to financial advice, assures that “if the right had been united in the parliamentary election (…) they would have had 90 of the 155 parliamentarians and 28 or 29 of the 50 senators, that is, the quorum of four sevenths necessary to change the Constitution of the Senate.”
Stake. The total registry reaches 15.7 million voters. It is estimated that, as in the recent elections – the exit plebiscites for both and the 2024 municipal election – this time it will reach 85%, that is, about 13 million of the 15.7 will actually vote. It represents, therefore, five million more than those who participated in the 2021 election, where some eight million people went to the polls with a participation of around 50%.
