Security crisis drives ultra-right in the country

Chileans go to the polls this Sunday (16) in the first mandatory election for president since 2012 – around 15 million are eligible to vote. Polls indicate that one of the three names on the right should face government leader Jeannette Jara in a likely second round. The conservative wave is driven by the migration and security crises.

The crime associated by many with immigration set the tone of the campaign. The candidates’ focus on this topic was mainly based on society’s perception of an increase in violence.

The Atlas Intel survey, released in October, shows that 53.1% of respondents consider insecurity and drug trafficking to be Chile’s main problems.

The Citizen Peace Foundation report from September shows that 24.3% of Chileans have a high fear of insecurity. Since 2022, this index has been above 20.5%.

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Perception

Alejandra Bottinelli, PhD in Latin American Studies from the University of Chile, explains that there is a fearful association between crime and immigration in the country. “It is true that in certain types of crimes we see a greater participation of immigrants, but attributing the growth in crime to the entire immigrant population, illegal or not, is a distorted view. The majority are hard-working and honest,” he said. It is estimated that 337 thousand immigrants live irregularly in the country.

Although Chile is considered one of the safest countries in South America, behind only Argentina and Uruguay, according to the Global Peace Index, some types of crime have increased in recent years.

A report prepared by the Chilean Public Ministry points out that since 2016 there has been an increase in homicide rates for every 100 thousand inhabitants.

Fear

Nine years ago, this index was 4.2. In 2024, it reached 6. An increase of 42.8%. The document shows that the majority of them are practiced by Chileans and 1 in 5 by foreigners, mainly Venezuelans and Colombians.

In addition to kidnappings, which increased 27.8% between 2022 and 2024 and show “continuous growth”, according to the Public Ministry, another crime that scares the population is cell phone theft. Data from the Chilean Investigative Police (PDI) indicate that 2,000 devices are stolen per day, around 500,000 per year.

Bottinelli explains that the two most radical candidates on the right, Johanes Kaiser, from the National Libertarian Party, and José Antonio Kast, from the Republican Party, used fear as an instrument to garner votes. “When they speak, the two end up representing the anger of voters who feel politically abandoned,” he says, remembering that the same has already happened in other countries in the region.

According to analysts consulted by Estadãoother reasons that explain the momentum of the right are the poor evaluation of Gabriel Boric’s government and the disconnect between the current conservatives and the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, which occurred during the two terms of Sebastián Piñera, former president who died last year in a helicopter accident.

In the fight between the different wings of the right there is also Evelyn Matthei, from the center-right Independent Democratic Union. Data from the Citizen Panel, the last survey prior to the elections, shows that Jara, from the Communist Party, has 26% of the preference, followed by Kast (21%), Kaiser and Matthei (with 14%). The dispute also includes the independent Franco Parisi (with 10%).

In a likely second round, scheduled for December 14th, the situation is different. Jara would be defeated by any of the three right-wing candidates. Kast would beat her 46% to 32% and Matthei 45% to 30%. Boric’s candidate would lose by a smaller margin with Kaiser (45% to 41%). “The right will unite, no matter who wins (in the first round), and there will be a transfer of votes,” said political scientist Carlos Montecinos.

At the end of the campaign, Kast, who lost support in the last polls, called for polarization. “This is the election between chaos and order. Misrule and government. Destruction and prosperity,” he said. In the parallel dispute, the libertarian Kaiser appears as the biggest threat to him. In recent weeks, the candidate has gained momentum and could surprise.

Right, turn

Montecinos highlights that a combination of factors justifies the conservatives’ leading role in this election. In recent years, the human rights agenda has lost space in the public debate to economic growth, fiscal spending and security. “These issues were already typical of the right and have priority today. During an electoral race, it is always easier to start from there to criticize a government that does not have its own narrative and mobilize voters, like the current one”, said Montecinos.

A study by the Nodo XXI Foundation, at the end of October, shows that Chileans want rapid and profound transformations. But the priorities are very different from those of 2019, when massive protests took place in the country.

While six years ago the population demanded more equality, better salaries and pensions, in 2025, the demands are for public order, migration control and security. What would have provoked this movement towards conservatism? According to the research, it would have been “social fatigue” after two unsuccessful constituent processes added to the feeling of insecurity.

Defender of the death penalty and Pinochet’s dictatorship, Kaiser calls himself a libertarian and has similarities with Argentine president, Javier Milei. He emerged into politics in 2021, when he was elected deputy for the Republican Party, founded by Kast.

But the ideological differences between the two and the controversies created by the parliamentarian led Kaiser to found his own party, in 2024. In recent weeks, he took votes from both Kast and Matthei.

“Among the right-wing candidates, he is the one that gives me the most confidence,” said Ruben Barrios, 44, when revealing his vote. Administrative coordinator of a mining company, he said he voted center-right, but this year he decided to support the libertarian.

Communist

Former minister of Gabriel Boric, from the Frente Amplio, Jara entered the dispute after winning the left-wing primaries in June. In addition to the difficulty of detaching its image from the Communist Party and the distrust in relation to its proposals, it also faces high rejection of the current administration which, according to the Cadem survey, is 62%.

For historian Rodrigo Mayorga, from the Catholic University of Chile, this is one of the explanations for the strengthening of the Chilean right in recent years. According to him, Boric made mistakes that undermined his government and adopted a much more pragmatic discourse compared to the one that brought him to power.

Mandatory voting

Since the 2022 constitutional plebiscite, voting has once again become mandatory in Chile and, for the first time since 2012, it will be implemented in an election for president.

Anyone who does not go to the polls will have to pay a fine that can reach 104,313 pesos (around R$534).