Sunset in Venice
Europeans have two options. They can wake up, or resign themselves to transforming the continent into an immense set of monuments and memories that echo in the void.
At the time of the Renaissance, at the end of the 15th century, the Italy was the jewel of Europe. Venice dominated the seas; Florence led in arts and finance; and Milan stood out in commerce and technology.
No other region in the world west was so advanced. However, within a few decades, it lost both its political independence and its economic primacy.
Today’s Europe runs a similar risk, says economist Andrea Dugo in an opinion article on .
After being the subject of global envythe leadership of the European bloc has disappeared. The European Union is not just politically divided: it is now also clearly stay behind in the sectors that will shape the rest of this century.
Os young talents leave for the United States and Asiaas the European economy increasingly transforms in a kind of museum in the open air of past exploits.
Whether in growth or in technology, industry or living standardsEurope risks becoming a province in a world defined by others. And it has much to learn from the decline of Renaissance Italy.
The warning signs are evident: Since 2008, the EU’s GDP has grown by just 18%, while the US has advanced at twice the pace and China has almost tripled.
Tourism continues to risethat’s right, but the millions who pursue Instagram photo getaways are not enough to compensate for the stagnation — and they also entail costs.
The fall in living standards within the bloc it also has similarities with Renaissance Italy. Around 1450, Italian per capita income was 50% higher than that of the Netherlands. A century laterthe Dutch were 15% richer and, by 1650, they almost doubled the level of wealth of the Italians.
Modern Europe slides even faster. In 1995, Germany’s GDP per capita was 10% higher than that of the USA; today, the United States is 60% higher. Keeping the pace, the German prosperity level could be reduced to 1/3 of North Americans within a generation.
As in Renaissance Italy, this economic ill-being reveals a deep technological gap.
Queen of the seas at her peak, Venice clung to outdated technologies and paid the price. His galleys, excellent in the calm waters of the Mediterranean, could do nothing against the oceanic caravels that took Portugal and Spain to the four corners of the world.
Today’s Europe is repeating the mistake. In Artificial IntelligenceEuropean investment corresponds to just 4% of North American investment. Today, OpenAI is valued at $500 billion, while the largest European AI startupa Mistral, worth only 15 billion.
And although it was a pioneer in quantum scienceEurope has lagged behind in its commercial application. Currently, a single North American startup, IonQ, has raised more capital than all quantum companies in Europe added together.
Even in the battery areathe much-lauded Northvolt, from Sweden, collapsed in March, ending up acquired by a Silicon Valley startup.
Traditional industries also weaken. Taken together, the three main German car manufacturers are only worth 1/8 of Tesla.
A Ericsson e a Nokiaonce the world leaders in mobile networks, have fallen behind Asian rivals in 5G. And the French Arianespacewhich dominated satellite launches for decades, now depends on purchased seats in the rockets of technology billionaire Elon Musk.
The problem isn’t in the invention — it’s in the scale. Despite having top engineers and excellent universities, almost 30% of European “unicorns” have moved to the US since 2008, taking their most ambitious entrepreneurs with them.
The continent ignites the spark of ideasbut the United States feeds them and reap the profits — yet another pattern that replicates Renaissance Italy, which provided talent while others built empires.
Some of its greatest explorers 500 years ago, such as ColumbusCaboto, Vespucci, Verrazzano, trained in Italy, but ended up sailing and achieving their conquests under foreign flags.
The root of the problem, yesterday as today, is politics. Like the rival city-states of the 16th century, Europe today finds itself fragmented and weak.
The capitals clash on matters of energy, debt, migration or industrial policy; a common defense strategy remains just an ambition; and bold plans to invest in technology or deepen capital markets founder in endless arguments.
It was this disunity that condemned Italymaking it easy prey for foreign powers that would eventually divide the peninsula.
E and The bloc’s current divisions leave it vulnerable in the face of global competitors: Washington dictates defense; Russia threatens Eastern Europe; China dominates supply chains; and Silicon Valley reigns supreme in the digital economy.
But the outcome is not written.
The EU has built institutions that Renaissance Italy could never imagine: a single market, a common currency, a parliament. It continues to host world-class research centers and stands out in advanced industry, pharmaceuticals, aeronautics, green energy and design. The continent can still lead — but only if you decide to acthighlights Andrea Dugo.
16th century Italy did not have this opportunity. Geography tied it to the Mediterranean while trade routes moved to the Atlanticand trade came to a standstill. New naval technologies left their fleets behind and their best talent sought fortune elsewhere.
Europe, however, does not face this limitation. Nothing stops it — except its own political timidity and internal fragmentation.
The block needs accept costs now to avoid the biggest of costs later: the irrelevance. It must invest decisively in technologies such as AI, quantum computing, space and biotechnology, build a credible defense and create capital markets that allow startups to grow from home.
The recipes are known. Mario Draghi, former Italian Prime Minister, detailed them in his report on the future of the EU. What is missing is political will.
Once the beating heart of Europe, Italy became, over time, a land of visitors rather than innovators. And the lesson of history is clear: the culture remained, but the power faded.
The EU still has time to avoid this fate. Europeans can wake up — or resign themselves to transforming the continent in a place of monuments and memoriesconcludes Andrea Dugo.
