“Maduro said something like: ‘Do you want to get rid of me? Do you think things will get better?’ It’s something to take into account, because Maduro is a moderate within Chavismo, and someone else could usurp power in the opposition’s place, with the support of the military”
US President Donald Trump says he believes Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s days are numbered and that ground attacks inside Venezuela are a possibility. Experts say the US does not currently have the military resources necessary to launch a large-scale operation to remove Maduro from power, although Trump has approved covert actions inside Venezuela, .
If Trump were to order strikes inside Venezuela with the aim of deposing Maduro, experts say he would face serious challenges from fragmented opposition elements and a military primed for insurgency, as well as a political backlash at home for a president who has vowed to avoid costly entanglements abroad.
CNN reported that Trump received a briefing earlier this week to review updated options for possible military action inside Venezuela, a concept that the White House . The government has not yet decided whether to launch attacks, CNN reported, although the US military has deployed to the region as part of what the Pentagon called Operation Southern Spear, in an announcement made on Thursday.
The concentration of military resources and threats of new attacks, in addition to , increased pressure on Maduro. US government officials say he must leave office, arguing that he has strong links to the Tren de Aragua cartel and leads drug trafficking.
But if Maduro flees Venezuela or is killed in a targeted attack, experts fear a military takeover in the country or the rise of another Maduro-like dictator.
There are other members of Venezuelan Chavismo, the left-wing political ideology of former Cuban leader Hugo Chávez, defended by Maduro, who could take power and subject the country to an even harsher regime, experts and former officials say.
“Maduro said something like: ‘Do you want to get rid of me? Do you think things will get better?’ It’s something to take into account, because Maduro is a moderate within Chavismo, and someone else could usurp power in the opposition’s place, with the support of the military”, says Juan Gonzalez, resident researcher at the Institute of the Americas at Georgetown University and former Biden administration official focused on the region.
Another possibility would be a seizure of power by the military.
“If the military is still cohesive, and I don’t think there’s any indication that it isn’t, it’s not going to collapse because of Maduro’s challenge or ouster,” says John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser during his first term. “They will follow their discipline, exercise military control and repress anyone who takes to the streets.”
Members of the Armed Forces participate in the “Independence 200 Plan”, a defense deployment ordered by the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, in the face of growing tensions with the United States, in Mérida, Venezuela, in this image released on November 11, 2025. photo: Governorate of Mérida via Reuters
Maduro, whose inner circle is made up of civilians and military personnel who often compete with each other, is known to exercise tight control over his government and has helped stabilize rival factions. External forces, such as Colombian insurgent groups that regularly operate from Venezuela or criminal organizations linked to cocaine, gold and mineral trafficking, further complicate the scenario.
If Maduro were to disappear, these forces could fragment the country, leading to a potential civil war, experts add.
“Whether you like it or not, Maduro is the guarantor of balance,” says a Western diplomat who spent years in Venezuela, who asked to speak anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter with the press. “Everyone knows he has been politically dead since last year’s election, but if he leaves, there will be no one who can maintain the status quo… so everyone is rallying around him.”
Opposition figures
The Trump administration may hope that Venezuelan opposition figures can fill the power vacuum created by Maduro’s removal, something the first Trump administration considered when supporting Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó following Maduro’s victory in the 2018 election, which was internationally denounced as fraudulent. That first Trump administration officially recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader in 2019, but a failed coup attempt that year prevented him from taking power.
A current Venezuelan opposition group, led by Edmundo González, who ran for president last year in elections in which Maduro was defeated, according to the US, claims to have a 100-hour plan to transfer power from the Venezuelan government from Maduro to González. However, experts say they would not be able to succeed in the short or long term without continued US support – potentially involving the presence of US troops on the ground.
“The idea that a member of the opposition can govern almost immediately is impossible. There is no way to guarantee their security or ability to govern without the US providing security”, highlights Juan González. “Everyone sees Maduro’s removal as the end, but in reality it is just the beginning of what will be a long and drawn-out process.”
American officials also claim that Edmundo González, currently living in Spain, is the legitimate leader of Venezuela, based on the results of last year’s elections. The US provided limited support to another Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who took refuge in the country after the election. Assistance includes support, such as access to secure means of communication, former US officials indicate.
The elected president of Venezuela, Edmundo Gonzalez, during the Libertad y Democracia Group Forum at the Ateneo de Madrid, on May 21st this year. photo Mateo Lanzuela/Europa Press/Getty Images/Arquivo
To keep any of the potential opposition leaders in power, however, the kind of support needed from the US would go beyond providing a safe device – assistance would be needed in rebuilding the army, unlocking Venezuelan government funds and training its police force, experts argue.
The opposition’s enemies within Venezuela are not limited to Maduro himself, which is why this continued external support is seen as a necessity, they add. The opposition would face hostilities from the Venezuelan military; of pro-government paramilitary groups known as colectivos; the National Liberation Army (known as ELN), a Colombian guerrilla group that currently has refuge in the country; and other active criminal groups.
It is unclear how much support Trump would be willing to give to any opposition leader seeking to take the presidency from Maduro. But this support would have to be sustained, authorities say, to prevent a failed State.
Such prolonged US military involvement risks destabilizing the political coalition that propelled the Trump presidency with promises to keep the United States out of foreign wars.
“The American people did not vote for Trump to drag the US into a protracted conflict in Latin America and, on that basis, guarantee Trump’s commitment to lasting support for the opposition [venezuelana] It’s probably going to be a challenge,” says a Republican congressional aide. “And without that support, it won’t work.”
Still, if Trump backs down from potentially deposing Maduro now, some believe it could be seen as a missed opportunity.
“Trump is calling Maduro a narco-terrorist and drug trafficker and has already assembled a huge armada – if he backs down now and Maduro survives, there goes all the talk about the ‘new Monroe Doctrine’ and the idea of being supreme in our own hemisphere”, highlights Elliott Abrams, a former senior State Department official during Trump’s first term.
Tangled
While some say Maduro’s ouster could be done without U.S. troops on Venezuelan soil for an extended period, they say the U.S. commitment following any kinetic strikes must be lasting, otherwise the effort could easily fail.
“If force is decisive, it can dismantle an entire army. But any action taken cannot be done with a short-term perspective. The use of force must generate a result and be linked to a political solution with US support, and to planning for this support in the long term, from five to 10 years”, says a diplomat from the region.
The Maduro regime is supported in different ways by Russia, China and Cuba. Experts fear that if US strikes hit targets in those countries, the conflict could quickly escalate. While it is unlikely that any of these nations will send troops to the region to defend against US attacks, it is possible that the effect of US attacks inside Venezuela will be mitigated by the support these countries provide to the regime.
The three countries invested in the Venezuelan regime and have instruments that they could use to prevent Maduro’s fall, experts say.
This has happened in the past.
“In 2019, the opposition thought that the Cubans had discovered what they were trying to do with the coup attempt and believe that they took measures to undermine their efforts”, points out Bolton.
Further worsening the problem, Maduro could attack US targets in the region – before the US even makes any moves to directly remove him.
“If Maduro thinks he is going to fall, there is a possibility that he could attack something that is important to the US, like oil platforms in the Caribbean Sea. It could be a gamble he would be willing to make that would harm US interests in the region,” says Henry Ziemer, regional expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Publicly, the Trump administration continues to point to its increased military resources in Latin America as being primarily focused on counter-drug operations – and not on deposing Maduro. Experts that the equipment and troops gathered are not enough for a full-scale invasion.
Still, when asked earlier this month whether the U.S. might go to war with Venezuela, Trump gave an ambiguous response: “I doubt it. I don’t think it will happen.”
