Less than 11 months before the 2026 elections, Bolsonarism is experiencing a veiled attempt at succession in which some of the actors seek to take the lead on the right without repeating the direct confrontation that marked the first generation of dissidents — after breaking and clashing with .
If from 2019 to 2022 figures like and fell from millions of votes to electoral insignificance after openly clashing with the Bolsonaro clan, now the new movement is careful to maintain reverence for the former president while publicly selling itself with a more central appearance.
The union of the centrão —a center-right and right-wing group that controls Congress— and a large part of the business community and the financial world around the name of (Republicanos-SP), added to the articulation of fellow right-wing governors running on the sidelines, make up the most visible face of this redesign.
The first wave of dissidents found Bolsonaro in power and with a good prospect of re-election. The second has in its favor the advantage of seeing him convicted and imprisoned.
The current model that seeks to succeed the former president’s leadership in the right-wing field had the seed planted in the election for São Paulo City Hall, in 2024, when Pablo Marçal almost displaced the official name of Bolsonarism, Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB).
There it was found that, depending on the profile and the way in which the dissent occurs, there is not necessarily electoral death when Bolsonaro’s orders are not followed.
Amid this chess and with the former president in prison, his eldest sons, Senator Flávio, Eduardo and Councilor Carlos, all from , try to keep the right-wing baton in the hands of the family.
In addition to trying to convey the image that Bolsonarism has an owner and hierarchy and is not open to succession, they publicly demand not only support but also action in favor of the father.
As shown (14), he advanced in his movements to run as a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, a nightmare scenario for the center and its plan to unify the right around Tarcísio.
In , Eduardo once again stated that he sees a lot of people on the right trying to pretend to be something they are not.
“When you remove Jair Bolsonaro from the equation, you won’t find another leader who can bring everyone together,” he stated, stressing that he will be in the opposite camp to Lula in 2026, but that what he doesn’t want “is for people to take a pig in a poke.”
The charge is addressed to: Tarcísio in particular, but also the other right-wing governors (who were accused by the sons of the former president of ) and other figures such as the former minister Ricardo Salles (Novo) and the federal deputy (PL).
In the view of those around the family, for example, Nikolas does not use his prestige to press for a reversal of Bolsonaro’s situation. The deputy was the champion of votes for the Chamber of Deputies in 2022 and has a large presence on social media.
“Nikolas wants to get rid of Bolsonaro once and for all. He is leading a dissent, and several younger politicians are with him. The problem? The usual: ‘We have to get rid of Bozo without losing voters’. They want to continue being elected by the Bolsonaro supporters, but they no longer want to be accountable to Bolsonaro”, says a post shared by on their social networks at the beginning of the month.
The criticism concerns the clan’s decision to decide to fight for Santa Catarina, which split Bolsonarism in the state, with state deputy Ana Campagnolo (PL) as the spokesperson against the change.
Nikolas, who had been criticized before by the former president’s son, did not respond. On his Instagram account, he posted a combination of videos alongside Jair Bolsonaro. The post had more than 15 million views as of this Friday.
“If you are labeled a traitor, your votes will evaporate,” says Fabio Wajngarten, who was Communications Secretary in the Bolsonaro government, without mentioning specific names. “In these three and a half years of persecution of the president, it is clear who was at his side and who was not.”
Both Nikolas and Tarcísio were authorized by Alexandre de Moraes to visit Bolsonaro in the coming weeks.
“I believe they will have a dilemma, which will persist until the end. If they pass the baton to someone first, to Tarcísio, they put Bolsonaro in total ostracism, this makes it difficult to elect a bench of far-right deputies. So I think they will be left with these ghosts”, says the leader of the PT bench in the Chamber, Lindbergh Farias (RJ).
“I spoke to some of them, who said: ‘Our fear is that we will be swallowed up by the center’. You are seeing an attempt to break away from part of this group from Bolsonaro. And I think that Bolsonaro’s group will say no.”
Some current foci of dissent or instability in Bolsonarism
right-wing governors
- The group is made up of names trying to become viable for Lula’s succession, avoiding clashing with Bolsonaro and losing electoral capital on the right. Despite this, they were accused by Carlos and Eduardo Bolsonaro of acting like “rats” seeking to inherit their father’s political capital through inertia.
- It is formed by Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) and Romeu Zema (Novo-MG).
- On their last trip to Brasília, the group was accompanied by Claudio Castro (PL-RJ), who saw his popularity improve after the mega police operation against Comando Vermelho, in Rio
Tarcísio de Freitas
- Of this group, the governor of São Paulo has been the preferred name for months among the center and the financial and business elite to face Lula.
- He also faced strong artillery from the Bolsonaro family on the accusation of intending to turn his back on his political godfather while trying to inherit his electoral estate. Eduardo even said: “Tarcísio never helped you with anything in the STF. He was always standing by watching you get fucked and warming up for 2026”
Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina
- Bolsonaro’s decision to send the Rio councilor to run for the Senate in Santa Catarina opened a rift in local Bolsonaroism
- Without directly confronting the former president, figures such as state deputy Ana Campagnolo (PL) resist the idea head-on and are attacked by Bolsonaro’s three sons, for whom Bolsonaroism has command and whoever does not agree must openly break away.
Nikolas Ferreira
- Federal deputy from Minas, the most voted in the country in 2022 and a phenomenon on social media, is often accused by Bolsonaro supporters of not using all his prestige and reach to defend the former president
- In a recent post shared by Eduardo Bolsonaro, for example, he is accused of wanting to get rid of Bolsonaro
10 names from the first stampede, before and after
Joice Hasselmann (government leader in Congress)
Alexandre Frota (federal deputy)
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BEFORE: Actor elected with significant votes in 2018 in the Bolsonaro wave
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AFTER: He broke up in 2019, migrated to the PSDB, started publicly apologizing for having helped elect Bolsonaro and supported Lula in 2022. He was unable to be elected state deputy in 2022 and, two years later, he ended up elected councilor in Cotia. His mandate was revoked in 2025
Janaína Paschoal (state deputy in SP)
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BEFORE: Co-author of Dilma’s impeachment, , in the Bolsonarista wave
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AFTER: He later assumed an independent and sometimes critical stance. In 2022 he ran for the Senate and was unable to be elected, placing only 4th with 2% of valid votes. In 2024 she was elected councilor in São Paulo
João Doria (governor of SP)
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BEFORE: In 2018, he put his candidacy behind the slogan “BolsoDoria”, asking for a vote married to Bolsonaro in SP
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AFTER: He broke with Bolsonarism after being one of the main names opposing the denialist federal policy during the pandemic. He failed in his attempt to run for President for the PSDB in 2022 and is now out of party politics
Wilson Witzel (governor of RJ)
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BEFORE: Elected in 2018 in the Bolsonaro wave, with support from Flávio Bolsonaro’s group
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AFTER: He broke after positioning himself as a potential presidential candidate and being seen as fueling suspicions of the Bolsonaros’ connection with the Marielle Franco case. He was removed from office in 2021, the same year he
Gustavo Bebianno (minister of the General Secretariat)
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BEFORE: One of the main organizers of the 2018 campaign and strongman of the PSL, the party for which Bolsonaro was elected
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AFTER: Dismissed right at the beginning of the government amid the PSL orange candidacy scandal and for publicly clashing with Carlos Bolsonaro.
Carlos Alberto Santos Cruz (minister of the Government Secretariat)
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BEFORE: Reserve general, held one of the main positions in the “kitchen” of the Palácio do Planalto
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AFTER: Also fired in 2019 after conflicts with the Bolsonaro family. He became critical of the government and even had his name mentioned to run for President and other positions in 2022, but this never materialized
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Minister of Health)
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BEFORE: Deputy of the DEM (today União Brasil) and Minister of Health since the beginning of the Bolsonaro government
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AFTER: He was fired in April 2020 after disagreements with the denialist stance of Bolsonarism during the pandemic and also became a presidential candidate, but ended up running for the Senate, being handily defeated by Bolsonaro supporter Tereza Cristina (PP-MS)
Sergio Moro (Minister of Justice and Public Security)
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BEFORE: Bolsonaro arrived in the government as “super minister”, a symbol of the fight against corruption
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AFTER: It broke in April 2020 and accused the president of political interference in the PF. He tried to become viable for the Presidency in 2022, but failed and returned to align himself with Bolsonarism in the second half of 2022, when he was elected senator for Paraná
Abraham Weintraub (Minister of Education)
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BEFORE: It was one of the most visible symbols of Bolsonarist ideology in the first echelon of the government
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AFTER: He left in 2020 and, later, broke with the traditional Bolsonarist core. In 2022 he failed to be elected federal deputy, having only 4,000 votes. In 2024, he announced his pre-candidacy for Mayor of São Paulo, but the project did not go ahead
