The definition of who will command the Presidency of Chile no period of 2026 a 2030 You will have to wait a month, but since Sunday night (16) some signs indicate which candidate is starting the race for the second round on December 14 with greater strength.
opposition candidate and founder of the Republican Party, will advance to the second round after receiving the most votes in the 1st round.
With 99.6% of the ballots counted, at around 1:50 am, in Brasília, Jara had 26.9% of the votes and Kast, 23.9%, according to preliminary results from the Chilean Electoral Service (Servel).
Before the elections, some surveys already projected a , but predicted better numbers for her and lower ones for him.
At the end of October, the latest Plaza Pública Cadem poll estimated that Jara would have 30% of the votes and Kast, 22%. This Sunday, it was below that mark and he surpassed it.
Now, for the next second round, polls point to a very tight race. Kast has already started to receive support from other candidates — Johannes Kaiser, from the ultra-right, and Evelyn Matthei, from the traditional right —, which gives him momentum in the final stretch.
In this electoral definition, the support that the other defeated candidates announce will play a decisive role.
Jara and Kast: two visions for Chile
The advance of Jara and Kast is explained, on the one hand, by the fragmentation of votes and, on the other, by the opposite poles that they both represent, analysts point out.
According to experts, the participation of eight candidates made it difficult for any of them to reach the vote necessary to win in the first round: more than 50% of the votes.
Now, Jara and Kast offer the electorate two options situated in extremes of the political spectrum.
Jara is a left-wing politician who was part of a government that, in the view of the majority of Chileans, failed to solve the country’s main problems or improve the quality of life.
Kast is an ultra-right politician with similarities to figures such as Donald TrumpPresident of the United States, and Jair Bolsonaroformer president of Brazil, and who claims that left-wing governments owe a historic debt to Chile.
Paulina Astroza, an academic specializing in Political and Social Sciences, considers that the main difference between Jara and Kast is “their vision of the role of the State in society”.
Astroza told Georgetown University’s Spanish-language podcast, “Y esto no es todo”, that Kast proposes a model “in which the State is as small as possible”, with less public spending and greater strength of the private sector.
Jara, in turn, defends a State “with a much more active role in society”, whose main mission would be to improve the living conditions of the population and facilitate democratic coexistence.
National problems awaiting response
A decisive factor for the second round will be which of the two candidates will be able to prove themselves more capable of meeting voters’ main concerns: public security and the economy.
On the topic of security, official data show that, between 2023 and 2024 alone, the number of crime victims in the country increased by 10.8%.
In the economy, growth in 2024 was just 2.6%, insufficient to generate the jobs that Chile needs and improve the standard of living.
Faced with this scenario, voters will have two options: give a vote of confidence in Jara, in favor of the continuity of the left and its promises to expand social rights and combat inequality; or, on the contrary, opt for a 180-degree turn and choose Kast, who defends a smaller State and fewer regulations.
Luz Araceli González, professor of International Relations at Tecnológico de Monterrey, told CNN that what is happening in Chile reflects a global trend of political disputes between projects that are located at opposite poles.
“Chile is an example of this polarization that we see in the world between frustration with the democratic, liberal, market model, which didn’t solve anything, and then the arrival of governments more to the left, with promises, even with somewhat messianic leaders, who also didn’t solve anything”, he stated.
González predicts a very tight second round, with a “minimal” difference, and warns of additional factors, such as the weight of the United States’ influence.
“We cannot deny that the USA has an important influence, for and against. But what country project do you imagine for the next government? Boric did not meet all expectations when he came to power, but we will have a second round with very close results, which will reduce the legitimacy of whoever wins, due to polarization”, said the expert.
Possible support towards the second round
For the second round on December 14, analysts draw attention to where the support of the six defeated candidates will fall.
Javier Aeloíza, academic coordinator at the Andrés Bello University School of Government, told CNN that, in the coming weeks, it will be important to observe how political forces will reorganize around Jara and Kast.
Some alliances began to emerge just minutes after the polls closed, while the first results appeared on the Servel website.
The ultra-right candidate Johannes Kaiser, from the National Libertarian Party, acknowledged his defeat in a message to his followers and declared support for Kast, claiming that the alternative represented by Jara would be “more of the same”.
Likewise, Evelyn Matthei, candidate of the traditional right and representative of the Chile Vamos coalition, congratulated Kast, declared her support and even addressed his campaign committee, where she later accompanied him in his speech to his supporters.
As of Sunday night, Kaiser had 13.93% of the votes and Matthei, 12.56%. If these votes go to Kast in the second round, they will add to his 24.02% and take him to 50.51%, enough to elect him president.
Jara, in turn, also sought to build alliances from his first speech after the second round was confirmed. In front of her supporters, she thanked those who voted for her and praised proposals from opponents such as Matthei — who had already declared support for Kast —, as well as Franco Parisi, Marco Enríquez-Ominami, Harold Mayne-Nicholls and Eduardo Artés, in an attempt to attract their support and that of their voters.
But even if Jara wins these votes, she would only reach 49.48%, falling behind the bloc forming around Kast.
After this Sunday (16), Jara advanced as leader to the second round, but the road ahead promises to be difficult.
