São Paulo (Reuters) – The deforestation of areas for agricultural use in the Cerrado region causes drier climate conditions that ultimately harm soybean production, according to the conclusions of a new study released this Monday (17).
The work, which was first shared with Reutersargues that the drop in productivity leads farmers to deforest even more land, accelerating the degradation of Brazil’s second largest biome, after the Amazon, and hampering conservation efforts.
“Our new analysis finds that when farmers clear native vegetation to plant soybeans, the climate impacts go far beyond the areas deforested,” Zero Carbon Analytics said in a note detailing the key findings of the research group’s study.
The Brazilian Cerrado region occupies more than 2 million square kilometers, around 23% of the South American country’s territory.
The region would have produced an additional US$9.4 billion of soybeans — nearly 8% of its soybean production in the ten years covered by the study — if land had not been deforested for soybean production since 2008.
Zero Carbon Analytics analyzed soy production, yield, export and price data from 840 municipalities in the Cerrado between 2013 and 2023, as well as precipitation and aridity data.
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However, according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab) since 2008/2009, average soybean yields in Brazil have shown an increasing trend. Thanks to the use of new technologies, including transgenic seeds and better agricultural inputs, productivity grew by almost 38%, reaching 3.62 metric tons per hectare in 2024/2025.
“Our analysis is not denying that production has increased,” said Joanne Bentley-McKune, author of the study, which was reviewed by an economist. “What is being shown is that production increases despite climate losses.”
The difference between soy production and what could have been produced — estimated at around 34 million tons — due to deforestation in the Cerrado from 2013 to 2023 shows “the gap between what has been achieved and what could have been achieved if we had these technological gains without this climate disruption,” said Bentley-McKune.
Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans in the world and one of the main suppliers of soybeans to China, is expected to harvest around 178 million tons in the current season.
