The rapporteur of , known as , (Solidariedade-SP) calculates that today the text has 330 to 350 votes in the Chamber of Deputies and states that it will be voted on and approved in 2025. The minimum necessary would be 257 votes.
In the parliamentarian’s view, as soon as the debate on the issue is overcome in the House, the text reported by him will be assessed — possibly as early as next week, even if the debate, in which several deputies participate, could disrupt the schedule.
Paulinho states that the text will no longer be modified and will have as its axis the unification of the crimes of coup d’état and violent abolition of the democratic rule of law. Currently, penalties are added to convictions.
With the change, the former president’s (PL) sentence for leading the coup plot, currently set at 27 years and three months by the STF (Supreme Federal Court), would fall to less than 20. The prison time in a closed regime would go from 6 years and 10 months to something around 2 to 3 years.
Furthermore, in the parliamentarian’s interpretation, everyone involved in January 8th who is still in prison would be released immediately.
One of the factors contributing to the vote on the text soon is . On Friday (7), the First Panel of the former president’s STF. The action is expected to be concluded in December — with the sentences beginning to be served in 2025. The location of the former president’s possible prison term in a closed regime is still unknown.
Faced with this scenario, says Paulinho, the PL bench started to push for a vote on the text and now admits the version of the text that was previously called “amnesty light”, that is, which does not imply the elimination of the possibility of Bolsonaro’s imprisonment in a closed regime.
Other obstacles, such as the tense relationship between the Chamber and the Senate after the overthrow of the , have now been overcome and there is already a sign that the project would have a good chance of approval in the other House, assesses the rapporteur.
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