The current governor of São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), tipped to run for president in 2026, should attract an electorate very similar to that of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), but with one big difference: he has a diverse base of voters, which even includes people who voted for current president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the second round of the 2022 elections. The information is from an excerpt from the “A Cara da Democracia” survey, requested by Estadão.
To get an idea of the base: of the Brazilians who responded in the survey that they “like or really like” the governor of São Paulo, 65% say they voted for Bolsonaro in the second round in 2022 and 22% for Lula. There are 11% who say they did not vote or canceled it, and another 2% who did not know how to answer.
In this way, the research indicates that Tarcisío’s base is generally more mixed, made up of different types of voters – which could be an advantage in a possible presidential race in 2026.
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This selection, made exclusively for Estadão, includes 2,500 face-to-face interviews between the 17th and 26th of October and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95%.
Another piece of data from the survey shows that Tarcísio suffers less resistance than Bolsonaro among people who evaluate the Lula government positively. Of the voters who evaluate the current government management as “excellent”, 64% say they do not like or dislike Tarcísio a little – while 89% say the same about Bolsonaro.
There is still a 15% share of this group that is satisfied with the Lula government, which claims to have a neutral opinion about the governor. In other words, it is a group that could change the results next year – as it could be between those who like Tarcísio and those who don’t.
But there are also challenges for the governor of SP in a supposed dispute at the polls as he is not unanimous among Bolsonaro voters. Of the group of people who say they like the former president, around 25% say they don’t like or dislike Tarcísio a little and 21% have a neutral view of him.
Will Tarcísio be in the running?
Recently, when stating that he intends to present a “project for Brazil” in the 2026 elections. The statement was made during the Bradesco Asset Investment Forum, in São Paulo.
Without officially assuming the status of pre-candidate, Tarcísio stated that the election will require a team “in love with Brazil” and minimized the importance of the name that will lead this agenda.
