Five keys to understanding the results of the elections in Chile

El Periódico

For 35 years it has taken place in Chile a kind of asymmetrical alternation: six center-left governments, two of them from Michelle Bacheletand two from a right that under the leadership of Sebastian Piñera adhered to the rules of the democratic transition. Sunday’s elections, and the great possibility that the extreme right will access the La Moneda Palace with José Antonio Kast, give way to a new political moment that is connected with the bitter disputes of the past. Augusto Pinochet was defeated in 1988 in a plebiscite on his continuity in power. The “NO” closed the aspirations of the dictator. That “YES” to the values ​​of the regime returns four decades later. He has revenge within reach. the former minister of Gabriel Boric and leader of the Communist Party, He obtained 26.85% of the votes in the first round. , of the Republican Party, will be the opponent in the runoff by obtaining 23.93% of the votes. Below are five keys to understanding the results of the first round of the elections in Chile.

Jeannette Jara, Gabriel Boric’s former Labor Minister, was less valued at the polls than the current president, whose administration is supported by 33% of Chileans according to a latest survey. She, however, did not reach 27 points on Sunday. Those around him considered that he should obtain at least 30% to wait for the second round on December 14 with a minimally reasonable expectation. Rockrose He belongs to the Communist Party (PC), but tried to break away from his formation. He also distanced himself from Boric. The tactic did not achieve the desired effect. The flight of votes in the ruling party did not go unnoticed. Despite the will of the center-left, defeated in the July primary, to accompany the former minister, that commitment was not reflected at the polls. The traditional voter of the Christian Democrats (DC) He also ignored the party’s call to support Jara. The question that the analysts were asking had to do with the candidate’s ability to convince society that has turned its back on her and those who assess the dangers that loom on the horizon.

Franco Aldo Parisi It was again the surprise of the elections: almost 20% of accessions. He economist He did not refrain from settling scores and described the pollsters as “terrorists” for underestimating him: “what a shame, they said we were a lost vote.” Parisi is he exponent of the disenchantment on the part of Chileans with traditional politics. In 2013, the “people’s economist” He jumped from university classes and television studies to the electoral arena as an independent candidate. The electoral justice questioned whether underwear, socks and ties were reported as campaign expenses. His attitude was funny. In 2021 it reached 12.8% of the votes. More than 60% of those citizens opted for Boric in that second round against Kast. The situation repeats itself: Parisi emerges as the most unexpected referee. “Chile is neither a facho nor a commune”he reiterated during his campaign. Parisi voted “No” to Pinochet in 1988. What he says about the dispute December 14 It can definitively seal Jara’s fate or fuel a small flame of hope.

From 2009 onwards, electoral campaigns could not avoid a core issue of society: notorious inequality between the richest and poorest. The compelling issue of this contest, however, was the insecurity. During the first half of 2025, 511 murders were recorded10% of the total figure in Ecuador in the same period and 13.8% less than in 2024 in Chile. Citizens nevertheless feel harassed by crime. Only the inhabitants of Zimbabwe, Chad, Myanmar and Eswatini perceive greater anxiety. According to international indicators, Chile It is in 62nd place out of 163 in which the issue of safety has been measured. The media are no strangers to the gap between imaginary fears and reality that Kast, like the other right-wing candidates who fell by the wayside, have been able to take advantage of very well. Even the Government had to recognize the validity of the issue. The opposition it always was more vehement in his approaches. The need for a “firm hand” and an order governed by the ruthlessness of the carabinieri, the militarized police, became the core proposal of the republican standard-bearer. The repressive turn also has an anti-immigrant component, especially Venezuelan. The nationality has been associated with the transnational gang Tren de Aragua. The xenophobic substrate of the votes towards Kast has not gone unnoticed. The order request also points againstto the original mapuche communityfeminist groups and students.

“The election of December 14 is not just any election. It will be the most important election of our generation“, said Closet on Sunday night. In October 1988 he was one of the advertising faces of the “Yes” to Pinochet. “We have had a turning point that will make a difference in the history of Chile“, he allowed himself to say 37 years later. Without necessarily sharing the enthusiasm of the Republican candidate, the feeling floats in the Chilean air that two stages of politics have closed since the country recovered its institutional path in 1990. On the one hand, the forces that gravitated in each contest, social democrats, Christian democrats, the traditional righthave become supporting actors. This decline coincides with another period of closure that It had been inaugurated with the social outbreak six years ago. “What the 2019 revolt removed, the new right capitalized on. The left ended up expelling the crowd that had reached the stage of drafting a new Fundamental Charter,” said philosopher Rodrigo Karmy. That energy was exhausted after the defeat of that Constitution. From the pages of the newspaper ‘La Tercera’, Gonzalo Cordero celebrated the end of the cycle. Chileans, by voting mostly for the right, gave “a clear sign of having emerged from the delirium that made them think that a radical transformation was possible“, maintaining the advantages of capitalist modernization, without paying its costs.”

Although Kast is un genuine product of Chilean politicsthe certain chances of being president this time are not dissociated from a regional and global context. On the one hand, the presence, with the Andes mountain range in the middle, of a far-right experience like that of Javier Miley which Chilean counterparts view with sympathy. On the other hand, the presidency of Donald Trump and his willingness to reorder what Americans have disdainfully called their “backyard.” Closet He also has very good relations with the Bolsonarism and Santiago Abascal. It is a subscriber to the Madrid Charter, which has Vox as one of the main signatures. Álvaro Ramis pointed out in an article published in ‘Le Monde Diplomatique’ that “the international laboratory is instructive” and“Having believed that Chile is immune to this virus is a suicidal illusion.”.

The Chilean radical right It shares with its global peers “the same ideological DNA” of visceral hostility towards the public, contempt for social rights and a dogmatic faith in the market as the only allocation mechanism. This current finds, through the combination of internal and external conditions, the space to propose a symbolic and practical rescue of Pinochet. He retired general Cristián Vialknown for his challenge to Boric during a military parade, has won a seat in the Senate for Kast’s party in the Maule region, in the center of the country. He had been head of the Army garrison in Santiago. Never before in these years has a soldier expressed his political sympathies with such transparency.

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