Opinion surveys on trust in Brazilian political and social institutions are unanimous in indicating that political parties are among those with the least credibility. The most recent survey on the topic, , shows that only 36% of Brazilians trust the parties and 45% trust Congress.
Low trust in institutions is yet another symptom of dissatisfaction with political representation and with democracy itself. This phenomenon is not exclusive to Brazil and occupies a central position in our public debate.
Political leaders are not indifferent to discontent and seek measures to reduce this discomfort.
One of the most recent was approved in 2021, within the scope of constitutional amendment 111, which determined that, for the purposes of distributing resources from the Party Fund and the Special Campaign Financing Fund, votes given to black and brown candidates would count double between 2022 and 2030.
My colleagues at FGV Thiago Fonseca, Débora Thomé and João Victor Guedes-Neto studied the effects of this measure. They remember a basic point: parties exist to compete and elect representatives.
Therefore, they will use all available institutional incentives, but always preserving the potential to maximize the number of seats in legislative houses, especially in .
Performance in this House weighs in the calculation of the performance clause, which defines access to public resources, in addition to its centrality in the drafting and approval of laws of national interest.
The study uses data from federal and state legislative elections between 2006 and 2022. The authors constructed subsamples to estimate effects between competitive and non-competitive candidates, defined by their proximity in votes to the last person elected on each list.
Because the incentives only apply to votes received by House candidates in 2022, state elections served as a control.
The results indicate that the incentives increased the parties’ total votes, but did not translate into greater electoral success for women or black and brown people. Votes given to women grew by 4.4%, and resources allocated to their campaigns increased by 12%.
In the case of , there was an increase in the number of candidates, but not in the funding received or in the number of votes. The percentage of women and black people elected remained practically unchanged.
The parties directed additional resources mainly to female candidates who obtained votes corresponding to only up to 10% of the votes of the last candidate elected on the list. This strategy made it possible to increase votes without risking the seats occupied by established and experienced cadres.
This is yet another example that good intentions are not enough to produce substantive changes in political representation. Electoral reforms require an accurate diagnosis of the problem, analysis of international experience and a deep understanding of the rules that organize competition.
In the end, the party’s ambition continues to be to win elections, occupy positions, control resources and influence the public agenda.
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