If there is one event in which the rapid changes in its mosaic in the last year are condensed symbolically and essentially, it is the visit of the new strongman of Syria,, to the White House. Last year around this time, the same man, under the pseudonym Al Jolanigave the signal for the attack that within a few days overthrew the regime Assad and deprived Iran of one of its key allies in the region.
The president endorsed , one of the products bearing the signature of the “planetarch”.
Before entering the Oval Office last Monday, Syria’s interim president played basketball with the US generals leading the war on terror.
The stabilization
What if al-Sara/Jolani was the leader of the branch of al-Qaeda that filled baskets with the heads of “infidels”? What matters now for Washington is the stabilization of Syria with the assistance of the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoganwho was instrumental in Jolani’s transformation.
Syria has historically been the heart of the Middle East as it lies between Anatolia, the Levant and Mesopotamia. Ankara is eyeing geostrategic gains, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Iraqi border and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Taking on the role of protector of the new Syria with Trump’s blessings, Erdogan wants to bring it under the Turkish “defense” umbrella while pushing for the demilitarization of Kurdish areas and the incorporation of Kurdish fighters (SDF) into the Syrian army.
Turkey’s plan is in conflict with that of Israel, which, taking advantage of the chaos in Syria, expanded the occupation zone in the Golan last year. Al-Sara called for the Israelis to withdraw from the lands they seized immediately after the fall of Assad, to pave the way for diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.
The rearmament of Tehran and the bet on Gaza and South Lebanon
Iran’s regime, weakened by the 12-day war with Israel and the bombing of its nuclear facilities by the US, has lost its foothold in Syria on which it had spent tens of billions of dollars, and is struggling to materially support Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
According to Western intelligence services, the Iranian regime is trying to rearm with the help of Russia and China at a time when popular discontent is flaring up over everyday problems such as drinking water shortages in Tehran. The US and Israel are silencing the Shah’s son’s ambitions to return to the country as a “liberator” from the mullahs who are not going to go down unscathed.
Maintaining the fragile cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and South Lebanon is crucial to the construction of the new American puzzle on the map of the Middle East. With the Abraham Accords, Trump is betting on developing Israel’s relations with the Arab and Muslim world to further isolate Tehran and stem China’s economic advance to the west.
New balances
In this context, the decision of Kazakhstan’s leadership to join the Abraham Accords changes the balance of Central Asia while adding yet another link to Iran’s encirclement plan.
Kazakhstan does not share a border with Iran, but the deepening of relations with Israel was accompanied by a statement of support for the so-called “Trump Corridor” that will pass through southern Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and with Turkey. The strategic corridor, a follow-up to the Azeri victory over the Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, helps bypass Russia, closes roads to China and creates de facto on Iran’s northern border.
