The presidential election may depend on the choice made by a popular former president who is in prison and still retains enormous political capital. Behind the scenes, the dispute is between a tougher ideological core versus the appointment of a more central name, with an administrative trajectory and previous experience as a minister of this former president, someone who has also governed one of the main states in the country. This could easily be the description of the 2018 scenario involving Ciro Gomes, who was emerging as an alternative to the left. But this time, we’re talking about .
In 2018, Ciro came to lead scenarios that would take him to the second round, but quickly lost space when he started to incorporate the political capital of , becoming the natural candidate of the PT camp. The dynamics reveal an obvious risk for 2026: a competitive center-right name may simply not sustain itself if it does not receive, at the decisive moment, the explicit transfer of support from .
Last week, to run as a candidate for President. At the same time, in the USA and increasingly hostile to the idea of Tarcísio running in 2026, he began to openly exert pressure against the governor. The signal that as an alternative reorganizes the Bolsonarist camp and reopens the dispute for the family’s political assets.
Analyzed the messages published throughout November in more than 100,000 public groups to exclusively measure how the Bolsonaro base discusses the former president’s possible successors in 2026. The result is unequivocal: Jair Bolsonaro continues to concentrate between 63% and 76% of mentions when it comes to the presidential contest, despite being arrested and legally weakened.
The remaining space is occupied almost entirely by Bolsonaro’s children, especially Eduardo and, more recently, Flávio, while Michelle, who is the weakest figure among the names associated with the former president, appears in a residual form. Tarcísio appears more consistently than Flávio and much higher than Michelle, but still fluctuates between 8% and 12%.
Tarcísio is today the main name to inherit the right without the surname Bolsonaro. And this is precisely the central point revealed by the data: in a succession dispute fought within the family itself, no external candidate can break the symbolic barrier that organizes Bolsonarism. For Tarcísio to become competitive in a second round, it is not enough to be the center’s favorite, nor to have good administrative performance. It depends on an explicit transfer by Jair Bolsonaro, the only figure capable of reorganizing the digital base and redistributing the political capital accumulated since 2018.
Research shows that the Bolsonarist vote in the first round fluctuates between 30% and 40%. If this estate is fragmented among heirs, the Bolsonarist right runs the risk of not taking anyone to the second round. WhatsApp data shows that, without a clear indication from Jair Bolsonaro, the base is dispersed among his children and allies, and any alternative candidacy remains confined to the same narrow and stable level where Tarcísio finds himself today. In other words, the 2026 succession will no longer be just an internal dispute but will become a real electoral risk: the right will only be competitive if Bolsonaro decides who, in fact, is his heir.
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