São Paulo (Reuters) – Brazil’s soybean harvest was estimated this Tuesday (18) at 177.7 million tons in 2026, a drop of 800 thousand tons compared to the October forecast, according to a monthly survey by industry association Abiove.
Despite the decline in the projected harvest that is still being planted, the largest global producer and exporter of soybeans would still have a record harvest, surpassing that recorded in 2025.
Abiove did not detail whether the reduction in projection is associated with a slower planting process in Brazil, given irregular rainfall in several regions. He stated that the lower estimate reflects the median number of associates, such as trading companies and processors.
But he said that “it is likely” to be related to the weather at the beginning of the harvest — as of Thursday last week, just over 70% of the planting had been carried out, according to consultancy AgRural.
On the other hand, Abiove raised the forecast for the Brazilian harvest harvested earlier in 2025, to 172.1 million tons, versus 171.8 million in the October estimate.
The forecast for Brazil’s final soybean stocks in 2026 was almost stable at 10.55 million tons, given the increase in the old harvest and the reduction in the new one.
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The projection by the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) was practically the same as that released by the National Supply Company (Conab) last week, when the official government agency indicated 177.6 million tons, citing irregular rainfall in some regions.
Abiove did not change its projections for Brazilian soybean exports and processing in 2026, which are also expected to be records, although the production estimate still depends on favorable weather.
Brazil’s soybean exports in 2026 were forecast at 111 million tons, a new maximum, against 109 million tons in 2025 — revised downwards by 500 thousand tons.
Soybean processing in Brazil in 2026 is expected to reach 60.5 million tons, increasing 3.4% over 2025, according to the association.
Abiove maintained its production projections for soybean meal and oil, but raised its expectation for vegetable oil exports by 200 thousand tons, to 1.2 million tons, which would still be below the 1.35 million tons in 2025.
Revenue from Brazilian exports of soybeans, meal and oil, the leading sector in generating foreign currency for the country, was estimated at US$60.25 billion in 2026, a jump compared to the US$55.26 billion forecast last month, amid a review of grain prices.
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For the same reason, Abiove raised its projection of export revenues from the soybean complex in 2025, now estimated at US$53.3 billion, an increase of US$3 billion compared to the previous month’s estimate, despite a reduction in the volume exported in the year.
Until last month, the association predicted an average soybean price in 2026 at US$415/ton and US$380/t in 2025, and now projects US$450/t and US$400/t, respectively.
Soybeans account for most of the revenue generated, with almost US$50 billion projected for 2026.
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Since the release of Abiove’s previous estimate, on October 22, soybean prices have risen more than 10% on the Chicago futures exchange, operating at a high since 2024, given expectations of purchases of the North American product by China following an agreement. The day before, traders said that China’s Cofco bought at least 14 cargoes from the US.
