After nearly 11 months of close observation, confrontations, attempts to outdo each other, and mutual obsession, the Sinnercaraz Year 2 era has come to an end.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner take turns competing, using tennis’ most important trophies as batons in a relay race. They have won eight consecutive Grand Slams, with two ATP Finals titles for Sinner and the world No. 1 ranking back for Alcaraz.
If it weren’t for Spaniard Alcaraz’s loss to an injured Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open in January, the two would likely have competed for the sport’s four biggest titles in 2025. Instead, they competed for three of them and took turns winning.
After the victory of the Italian Sinner by 7/6 (4) and 7/5 in the ATP Finals decision in Turin, on Sunday (16), the ball is back with Alcaraz for the pre-season. The leader of the ranking played a brilliant match, but Sinner was better than two months ago, in the final of the US Open, in New York — just as Alcaraz was the best player at the US Open, after his defeat to Sinner at Wimbledon. And just as Sinner was the best player at Wimbledon, following his defeat to Alcaraz at Roland Garros.
An hour after the end of the ATP Tour Finals, Alcaraz already seemed to have started to analyze with his team what he needs to defeat Sinner the next time they meet, in order to maintain this pattern of alternating victories. A thigh injury suffered during the match will leave him out of the Davis Cup finals this week, so his pre-season begins now.
“They will tell me how they saw the match, my weaknesses, my strengths, my qualities,” said Alcaraz. “I already have a few things in mind, which I’ve already shared with them. The season is almost over, so pre-season is already here. I’m going to do my best to start the season even stronger.”
As for Sinner, he took the moment to congratulate himself for performing better than the last time he faced Alcaraz, but he also showed determination to break the mold.
“The work we did was very positive,” he said. “Otherwise, these results won’t be achieved. December is very important for me.”
Therein lies the ongoing psychological drama at the heart of this rivalry between two players who are friendly, but not necessarily friends. The competition between them became a game of cat and mouse in tennis. One of them achieves something important; the other finds out why and seeks the advantage.
Just when tennis thought it was entering uncharted territory after the dominance of the “Big Three”, it returns to where it was between 2005 and 2010. Back then, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were the protagonists, constantly sizing each other up, looking for the smallest advantage that could give them a greater chance of winning.
As surprising as this year’s six meetings between Sinner and Alcaraz have been, the seeds of those comebacks lie in their intervals, dating back more than a year ago to the China Open final, when Alcaraz overturned a 3-0 deficit in the deciding set tie-break with seven thunderous points that left Sinner helpless.
They did not meet for the rest of the year, but Sinner shined and won his first ATP Finals title and led Italy to the Davis Cup. In January, he won his second consecutive Australian Open. He did not face Alcaraz there, but in Beijing he saw what he would need to do to overcome his rival, who had defeated him in all three of their 2024 meetings.
For the foreseeable future, Sinner and Alcaraz will consider each other’s presence in virtually all of their tennis-related decisions. This will happen on a macro level, in terms of tactics and strategy, perhaps even planning for games outside of mandatory tournaments. But all of that pales in comparison to how they process data from the six games they played against each other this year.
The Italian Open in Rome was Sinner’s first tournament after his three-month suspension for doping. Alcaraz won another tie-break with a sprint and then dominated the second set. In the final of the Cincinnati Open, Alcaraz mercilessly took advantage of a weakened Sinner, who ended up withdrawing because of a physical illness, after five games played and none won.
The other four matches, however — the three Grand Slam finals and the most recent clash in Turin — contain all the valuable data these two players could want. And their teams acted as expected.
“We always make some adjustments because the games are very close,” Sinner’s coach Simone Vagnozzi said during an interview in Cincinnati in August. “They change something and we have to adapt.”
The first of these matches was historic, standing out perhaps beyond all the matches that came before. Decades from now, people will still be talking about the five-set, five-and-a-half-hour marathon that unfolded on Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris during a June afternoon and evening at Roland Garros.
It will be the ultimate example of how Alcaraz managed to recover from a two-set deficit and escape three match points to win the decisive tie-break against a seemingly unbeatable opponent.
Sinner and his team thought they knew what to do. Sinner needed to be bolder and better in his movement on the court. When Alcaraz cornered him in the corners of the court, especially with his forehand, Sinner needed to find a way to turn defense into offense.
Five weeks later, Sinner got a rematch of sorts, beating Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. In a fierce four-set duel, Sinner was the best player from the back of the court, imposing his groundstrokes and stifling Alcaraz’s improvisations.
This caused Alcaraz to return to the laboratory. After months of searching and some improvement, he finally found the right rhythm and a lethal edge on his serve. He adjusted the movement, as well as the preparation of the forehand and backhand, perfecting all three shots to make them as devastating and safe as possible.
Eight weeks after his Wimbledon defeat, Alcaraz got back at it with an almost completely dominant victory in the US Open final.
And then it was Sinner’s turn. He made it clear after the defeat in New York that he needed to be more surprising, both on serve and from behind the court.
In Turin he achieved both. He served efficiently in the decisive moments and presented a variety of strikes, including some precise lobs, to make Alcaraz struggle to react again.
“In all my defeats, I tried to see the positive side,” Sinner said, using them as opportunities to force him to improve. “It happened in a very positive way.”
Now, he needs to break this pattern and become the player to evolve after a victory, instead of a defeat. Alcaraz has done this many times in this rivalry, which is why they have won seven of the last nine meetings and lead 10-6. Alcaraz will certainly bring some innovation to Melbourne, where they have never progressed past the quarter-finals.
“A player like him always comes back stronger from defeats. He always learns from defeats,” Alcaraz said of Sinner. “Once again, he showed everyone that he did it. Especially on serve, putting so much pressure. It’s really difficult to play against him.”
Enter 2026, the next chapter in the Sinnercaraz rivalry of evolution and adjustment. And enter Alcaraz, the latest to have the chance to learn from a defeat.
