The world is changing faster than most of us can imagine. Climatic extremes, record heat, torrential rains or melting glaciers are no longer warnings from scientists, but everyday reality. In the midst of these changes, however, there are processes that take place quietly, beneath the surface of the oceans and at the same time they decide what life looks like in the entire northern hemisphere, writes the website.
One is a huge oceanic system known as the AMOC, which acts as the Atlantic’s heat engine. It is this system that has now come to the center of attention in Iceland. The country issued an emergency warning and she described the possible disruption of ocean circulation as an existential threat. This is a situation that has not yet appeared in the history of Iceland’s climate policy, and its consequences could also affect Europe.
According to Iceland, the collapse of this current could mark the beginning of the modern ice age in northern Europe. Temperatures would drop dramatically, more snow and ice would appear. According to the Minister of the Environment, Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, this is the first time that a specific climate process is considered a possible existential risk factor.
Why might the AMOC break up? As a result of global warming, the glaciers in Greenland and the Arctic are melting. At the same time, the melting in Greenland adds a large amount of cold fresh water to the ocean. Such water is less salty and therefore less dense, disrupting the process of submergence and circulation of ocean currents that drives the AMOC. Scientists warn that this can weaken or even cut off circulation.
If the AMOC were to collapse, Iceland and other countries would feel the serious consequences. The Icelandic government is already preparing “disaster preparedness” scenarios. Risks in the area of food security, energy, infrastructure and maritime transport are analyzed. Without warm tropical water, electricity production could suffer, agriculture would suffer, and harbors that are now free of ice could freeze.
AMOC is considered one of the so-called climatic “tipping elements”, that is elements of the climate system which they can move to a new, potentially very different state when they cross a certain threshold, this transition need not be reversible. According to scientific estimates, the AMOC has already weakened and may reach a point from which it may not recover.
So far, the AMOC has been monitored continuously since 2004 using instruments on ocean buoys, electro-measurements in submarine cables and satellites. Climate models suggest that collapse could occur in the relatively near future — for example, between 2037 and 2109, according to one analysis.
However, scientists point out that there is uncertainty in the forecasts. Some studies suggest that the AMOC is more resilient than previously thought and a complete collapse may not be inevitable. In any case, the possibility of the collapse of the continental current is so serious for Iceland that it is already starting to plan how to prepare for this potentially catastrophic scenario.
