I’ve been away from here in the recent past. I never presented myself as the most talented being, but I think I was able to recognize when I was or wasn’t useful in different situations. In the moments when I didn’t do it, I always chose to withdraw.
The discussion about me, Mr. Market, has become a great exercise in premonition of the electoral event in 2026. The most comical thing is that a large part of the result of Brazilian assets this year, whether positive or not, is justified by trends imported from abroad.
Brazil sometimes behaves like an island, but it really isn’t. In fact, the perfect parallel would be that we are a wagon and not the world’s locomotive.
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While there are no “triggers” and the year seems to be over, the results reported by Nvidia show that the health of the backbone of optimism with the new technology cycle in the world is very good, thank you. However, this absence of good news leaves room for corrections and realizations.
Investors around the world who have already managed to achieve their results, without great indicators of conviction, prefer to guarantee the bonus that “drips” next year at current levels. The turbulent and challenging 2025 is heading towards the end of the year in the spirit of year-end specials and under the brightness of Christmas lights, or the impressive rise in gold recorded in this calendar.
Not to be called negligent, the streets and alleys of the Brazilian financial heart are crying out for a new “CEO” for Brazil. Well-established narrative by Walter Maciel, also a columnist for InfoMoney, used by the governor of São Paulo himself and possible candidate for president of the Republic, Tarcísio de Freitas, at a major event for a Brazilian company.
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In fact, I know that he read this text and identified with what was said. “Waltinho” as the market’s favorite candidate? How moral, my friend.
I don’t guide anyone, I’m just aware of market prices, I can say: for many, the Chief Executive Officer of Brazil has already resigned and Tarcísio must take over as the nation’s new leader. Not everyone needs or wants to communicate conviction in this way, but it is crystallized.
Several of these managers, using synthetic instruments, made ghosts, built positions in this sense. Buy EWZ, Brazilian stock index in dollars and traded in the USA, for December 2026, some preferred interest or exchange rate, others in the absence of “or” said “and”, made an acquisition of a true “election kit”.
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I heard from legendary names in resource management, recognized for their more pessimistic views on the local scenario, categorical and convinced statements about the political transition. Neighboring countries like Chile experiencing similar situations, research that shows signs of weakening of the current government after the nationalist speeches during Donald Trump’s “tariff war” and even Polymarket, which I didn’t usually mention until I personally watched Luis Stuhlberger mention the platform.
A few investors are already showing interest in buying shares in Brazil with the evident rise of the Ibovespa this year. Even though the high opportunity cost of high Brazilian interest rates is still a comfort zone that is difficult to overcome in the short term.
Nothing new under the sun, individual investors will, once again, invest in already saltier price conditions and help build returns for foreigners, who have historically operated well through local cycles, and equity managers, who will eventually become upset with prices and prefer to recycle their portfolios. The sad samba plot of the carnival of Tupiniquin finances that does not allow for depth.
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Next year we will certainly have a lot of volatility, for the stomach of the investor who doesn’t like the rocking of the boat, it will be a year of a lot of seasickness and nausea. For those who prefer not to hear my opinion every day through their home broker, this is the last call to rethink the diversification of their portfolios before they do it first.
Apparently the CEO of Brazil is already on notice.
