Murilo Hidalgo gave an interview to Jovem Pan about the scenario on the right after his arrest this Saturday (22); Michelle has the highest voting intention rate within the former president’s family
The political electoral scenario in Brazil enters a moment of uncertainty after the arrest of former president Jair Bolsonaro this Saturday (22), for violating the electronic ankle bracelet, according to information from the Federal Police. According to Murilo Hidalgo, CEO of Paraná Pesquisas. The real impact of this event on voting intentions can only be measured with surveys carried out next week.
Hidalgo highlights that, with Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility — whose scenario is practically irreversible —, the focus turns to succession. The surname Bolsonaro, in itself, has a high capacity to transfer votes, which the analyst estimates between 20% e 25% for any family member who enters the dispute.
- Michelle Bolsonaro: According to polls prior to the fact, the former first lady has the highest rate of voting intention within the family, being the name most tested against current president Lula.
- The dispute: The main question now is whether the family will choose to maintain polarization by contesting the 2026 elections with a Bolsonaro name (president or vice) or whether it will support another right-wing candidate. The surname, however, also carries a high rejection.
The analyst highlights the “seesaw” in President Lula’s popularity, which rose 6 to 8 points after the “tariff” issue (related to the cost of living) and fell 4 to 6 points after the public security episode in Rio de Janeiro. The electorate that fluctuates, estimated at 6% a 8%it is the key public that must decide the next elections, making the 2026 election very balanced, regardless of the current or opposition candidate.
The topics that most interest the majority of the population and this fluctuating public aresecurity, health and economy. However, the current political debate has left little space for these issues, focusing mainly on political-judicial issues.
Opposition candidates
Among the opposition governors with good performance, Murilo Hidalgo points out that names like Tarcísio de Freitas (São Paulo) and Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais) have greater electoral capital. However, the strong polarization between the Bolsonarist camp and the Lulista camp is a major barrier that makes it difficult for others to rise. players to the national scene.
Watch the interview with the CEO of Paraná Pesquisas
*Report produced with the help of AI
