It was an anticlimax. It came at a time when no one expected it, days before the long-awaited “final judgment”. had called for a spiritual “struggle” asking the “Lord of Hosts” to correct the errors of human Justice. But in position. The media cameras were also not ready. The arrest in no way resembled the spectacle of Lula’s arrest in April 2018 at the metalworkers’ headquarters, when a crowd came to defend the former president and hamper the police’s work.
The order was correct. The gathering of defenders outside the condominium could lead to turmoil and violence. Also, Bolsonaro. It is not clear whether there was some far-fetched plan or whether — which is more likely — it was . In any case, the safest thing for everyone involved — especially Bolsonaro — is what happened: his transfer to the PF superintendence with due constant medical monitoring.
A specter has always accompanied Bolsonarism: that force can impose itself on Brazilian institutions. Did Congress not cooperate? The people on the streets and online would frame him. Does the Supreme Court bar government decrees? Threats to ministers will frighten them. What gives Lula victory? The Armed Forces can turn the tables. Did power pass hands? Who knows, maybe one will awaken the barracks. Is Bolsonaro on trial? Trump’s threats would intimidate Justice. Was Bolsonaro convicted and will he be arrested? Once again, the desperate dream that a crowd (and a little help from God?) could make compliance with the court order impossible.
In all cases, the outcome was the same: Bolsonarism had to swallow defeat. Now with the former president’s arrest, perhaps his legion of followers will finally understand: Brazil has solid institutions; They can make mistakes, but there are legitimate paths internal to them that allow errors to be corrected. Trying to overthrow them by force of arms or crowds is a strategy doomed to failure and which exacts a high price from those who try.
Preventive detention at this point is only possible once you begin serving your sentence. If it turns out that his health remains stable in the cell, it will be a reason to keep him there. The recent example of fugitive Bolsonaro supporters —, , — also weighs on the credibility of our Judiciary.
May Bolsonaro serve his sentence in peace and achieve his regime progression at the right time. My personal hope is that the Brazilian right turns this page and seeks other leaders. Realistically, however, he still holds a powerful card: the choice of his successor in 2026. All the events against him and his children only increase his paranoid streak, which leads him to close in on the only hard core he trusts: his family, the same ones who push him deeper and deeper into the abyss. Will right-wing voters continue to embrace him?
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