The arrest of () divides opinions among left-wing cadres. Many see that the former president’s isolation could leave the right divided, but also that any worsening of his health condition — which he suffers from — could attract greater sympathy from undecided voters.
Bolsonaro was preventively arrested by order of the minister of the (Supreme Federal Court). The decision cited the violation of an electronic ankle monitor in the early hours of the morning.
The former president, who was serving a precautionary measure at home and under electronic monitoring since August 4, was taken to the Superintendence in Brasília, where he will be held in a space with a bed, private bathroom and a table.
Publicly, parliamentarians and party leaders heard by the Sheet They said that the political scenario for 2026 is confused, as the right has not managed to unite, so far, around a new leader.
With reservations, some understand that the former president’s delicate health situation could raise awareness among the population and cite, as an example, the stab wound that Bolsonaro was a victim of during the .
The greater media exposure and the images of the then candidate in the hospital would, according to politicians, have awakened a feeling of solidarity among people. A party leader estimated that keeping Bolsonaro under house arrest — when he begins serving his sentence of 27 years and three months for the coup plot — would generate less commotion than sending him to prison.
The deadline for presenting new appeals by the defenses of the defendants convicted in the first section of the plot’s trial ends this Monday (24). Members of the STF claim that Moraes will be able to determine as early as Tuesday (25) where Bolsonaro and the other convicts will serve their sentences.
Former minister José Dirceu divided opinions within the PT by publicly saying that Bolsonaro. Hours after the arrest, he said that the decision means “a fresh start” for the country. “The leader of the coup attempt is under arrest,” he wrote on social media.
For Adriano Oliveira, professor and doctor in political science at UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco), Bolsonarism will rely on parallels with the president’s arrest () in 2018, also in a room at the PF Superintendence, but in Curitiba.
Lula was sent there because the former judge (), now a senator from Paraná, ordered that he be separated from ordinary prisoners. At the time, PT members complained about the isolation and compared the prison to solitary confinement.
According to Oliveira, Bolsonaro supporters will try to show Lula as privileged for not having suffered from the same health issues faced by Bolsonaro.
“This strengthens the right-wing discourse against President Lula in an electoral campaign” and could win over voters who do not adhere to either political camp, he said.
Moraes determined that Bolsonaro was “full-time” and “on duty”, without the need for prior authorization from the STF to access the location.
National president of , Paula Coradi believes it is difficult to paint the former president as a victim, even in the face of fragile health. “After all, he himself was always against this type of speech,” she told the reporter.
“I think the extreme right will try to victimize him, but at the same time they will look for an electoral solution that guarantees them a majority in the Senate, the Chamber or even the Presidency,” he added.
Federal deputy Jilmar Tatto (PT-SP), member of the PT national executive, agrees that the right should invest in new leadership, but assessed that this should increase internal disputes that are already occurring between Bolsonarist allies.
“There are fights in the family [Bolsonaro] and among family and friends. There is a visible detachment from many people in relation to him. The trend [com a prisão] is to further dehydrate his political figure”, said Tatto.
The deputy leader of the PT in the Chamber of Deputies, Rogério Correia (MG), said that the fact that Bolsonaro is in prison further centralizes the clan’s power to pass on information and possible support. For him, this reduces any sympathies that the former president could have for politicians who are not close to his children or his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL).
“There is a strangeness between the extreme right and the centrão about who will get Bolsonaro’s estate. He doesn’t lose the dialogue he already has when he is in jail, but the fact that he is in prison means that he no longer speaks publicly, and takes away from him the messianism that the right is betting on,” said Correia.
Paula Coradi also said that, with Bolsonaro in prison, certain political demands of the clan – previously unquestionable – become more susceptible to criticism and questioning. She cited as an example the case of the Senate dispute in Santa Catarina.
The former president’s decision to nominate his son, a councilor in , as state senator, jeopardized the candidacy of federal deputy Carol de Toni. Bolsonaro is looking for a way to give Carlos special status and sees the state, the third state that gave him the most votes in 2022, a greater chance of being able to elect him.
Carol’s allies publicly criticized the fact that she had to change parties to try to get into the Senate, sparking a fight with Bolsonaro’s children.
“This issue in the Senate in Santa Catarina showed that there is already a dispersion, that a part of the extreme right no longer considers it viable to accept all the impositions of the Bolsonaro family on this political group,” she stated.
