The one from (), after the , started a clash of narratives. In Palver data, an analysis of more than 100,000 public groups from and between November 21st and 23rd, it is possible to see how political groups reorganize their discourse as the facts advance. Of the users who expressed an opinion in the groups, 63% were against it, while 37% were in favor.
Initially, messages from Bolsonaro groups stated that there had been no attempted violation of the ankle bracelet, but rather a malfunction, and that Moraes’ decision would, therefore, be excessive. At the end of the day, even with the , the effort became to question the evidence, whether doubting the voice, the leg, or even the absence of a burn that “should have been caused by the heat of the iron”. More than 38% of users who spoke about the topic in the groups denied that the former president tried to violate the ankle bracelet.
In parallel, one of the most important elements was the use of religion in the arguments, something that remained strong throughout the period. In your X account, (PL-RJ) did . The strategy is to transform Moraes’ decision into a persecution of religiosity. By transforming Moraes into an enemy of the faith, Bolsonarism shifts the discussion to a field in which legal reason matters little.
The expectations regarding those were also quite relevant. References to the USA and the American embassy totaled between 5% and 7% of the total messages. The sentence was widely replicated, often accompanied by comments suggesting that “the world is watching” or that the arrest would have caused “international shame” to the . The expectation of foreign intervention is fueled by posts made by people close to , such as Jason Miller and Martin de Luca, condemning Moraes’ decision.
Another important fact is the protagonism that Flávio Bolsonaro has gained in recent days, with mentions of his name increasing almost 20 times. As one of the main names considered to represent Bolsonaro in next year’s presidential elections, Flávio has been the main mediator between the family’s political nucleus and digital activism. In his X account, the senator asked supporters not to rush and not to go to the PF headquarters in Brasília. Mentions related to caravans to Brasília, strikes and in general have tripled compared to the last 30 days.
Among the 62% of users who accuse Bolsonaro of violating the electronic ankle bracelet, the PF video is considered inescapable evidence. Users also criticized what they classify as “victimism” and “narrative manipulation” by the right, and reinforced the idea that the crisis exposes the fragility of the rhetoric of persecution and violence, citing the ankle bracelet episode.
When observing Palver’s data, it is possible to identify that Bolsonarism continues to operate with the same logic that brought it here, which is a strong ability to consolidate narratives favorable to the group even in situations where there is contrary evidence, as is the case with the electronic ankle bracelet. This characteristic of Bolsonarism reinforces the difficulty of a name achieving electoral protagonism without the support of the former president, fostering political polarization for next year’s elections.
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