Analysts see no other solution to achieving peace without this “red line” being torn down. This is also indicated by the counter-proposal reached in Geneva over the weekend
Almost all parties involved in the peace negotiations in Ukraine agree on one point: talks in Geneva this weekend produced “significant progress”. Only Moscow came out to say that the Kremlin was not informed of anything and that it has only been following developments through the news being released by the media.
From the meeting in Switzerland, one came out, with the same 28 points, but with significant and softer changes for the Ukrainian side. Among the proposals that came out of Switzerland is the cession of occupied territories, which Ukraine undertakes not to recover “through military means”. “Negotiations on territorial exchanges will begin from the Contact Line”, the document reads.
But, this Monday, the president of the Ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, stated that: the formal recognition of the occupied territories, the limits on the Ukrainian defense forces and the restrictions on the country’s future alliances.
Diana Soller, specialist in international affairs and commentator for CNN Portugal, considers that not all of these lines will be so red. “There are some Ukrainian red lines that seem insurmountable to me. Such as the issue of sovereignty and the reduction of the Ukrainian armed forces. As for the territorial issue, I no longer know if it will be an absolute red line”, says the commentator.
“We heard throughout the war that the European Union and the United States were arming Ukraine so that it would be stronger at the negotiating table. And there were always voices within Ukraine about ceding territory. I believe that Ukraine will not be completely intransigent in this matter”, adds Diana Soller, even adding that “ceding territories will be the only way out for Ukraine”.
Is Ukraine in a position to impose strict and insurmountable “red lines”?
Lieutenant General Rafael Martins, a military affairs specialist at CNN Portugal, tends to agree with Diana Soller on the issue of ceding territory. “Zelensky is the weakest party. Especially when Trump almost completely accepted that first plan, which is a plan drawn up in Miami and which some sources say would have been drawn up by Russia and then handed over to the United States to present to the world. With the intervention of the Europeans, that plan is undergoing a recalibration. But, even so, I believe that Russia will be a little better for Putin than Ukraine itself”, argues the CNN Portugal commentator.
“We must be aware that the most fragile side is the Ukrainian-European side, unless the US abandons the role of imposing peace and adopts the role of true mediator”, agrees Diana Soller.
The commentator emphasizes, however, that “Russia also has its weaknesses, including economic weaknesses”. But they are not enough to force Russia to accept the European counter-proposal: “all behavior up to this point indicates that Russia is deeply inflexible in negotiations”.
Agreement implemented “before Christmas”
Marco Rubio assured at the end of Sunday’s talks in Geneva that “none of them are insurmountable” and that he is confident that an agreement will be reached. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio says it was the best meeting ever. Rubio will have more information than we have at the moment and will also have information about Russia’s possible receptivity”, says Rafael Martins.
“If this proposal calibrated by Europe is accepted, I believe that there will be conditions here on Zelensky’s part (and the signals have been given) for the plan to be implemented, I wouldn’t say in the next few weeks, but eventually at the beginning of December or closer to Christmas”, considers the lieutenant general.
This Monday, European leaders, meeting in Luanda, Angola, met informally, with Ukraine on the agenda. At the end of the meeting, the negotiations on a peace plan for Ukraine underlined that decisions such as sanctions, enlargement and asset freezing must go through the European Union. “Yesterday’s meeting, [domingo] in Geneva, between the United States, Ukraine, European Union (EU) institutions and their representatives, was marked by significant progress”, said António Costa, in a press conference alongside Ursula von der Leyen.
“Intensification of actions on the ground”
While European leaders were meeting in Luanda to talk about Ukraine, Donald Tump turned to Truth Social to say that . “Is it really possible that great progress is being made in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine??? I won’t believe it until I see it, but something good could be happening,” he wrote.
Lieutenant General Rafael Martins has no doubt that something is happening and, although he is optimistic that a peace plan can be implemented this year, he has some reservations: “Europe is coming to the front. Eventually the United States may retreat in its approach to Russia. But, the United States wants to be on good terms with Europe, it doesn’t exactly want to be on good terms with Ukraine, but, essentially, it wants to be on good terms with Russia.”
“We now have a period of uncertainty here. While the European counter-proposal is being discussed, it is natural that there will be, from both sides, bombings, missile launches and the intensification of actions on the ground, including by Russia. What Russia has done is, it has created difficulties for Ukraine for the coming winter”, adds Rafael Martins.
The military affairs expert also emphasizes that there is still a lot of territory that Russia would like to conquer and speaks of cities such as Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
