Analysis
The editor of International Express, Pedro Cordeiro, considers that the plan negotiated in Geneva is far from ideal for Kiev, but could become acceptable as the allies introduce changes.
The peace plan discussed in Geneva is far from corresponding to what Ukraine would like. As Pedro Cordeiro explains, “from the Ukrainian point of view, the only good plan would be the total withdrawal from Russia and the recovery of all the territory that, in the light of international law, belongs to Ukraine”. But this scenario “is very unlikely”.
According to the editor of Expressallies work “on the possible plan”, which is adjusted as it is discussed.
“The first version proposed by the United States would not be susceptible to acceptance by Ukraine and, therefore, there are meetings that add points and improve others to make things more viable for Kiev.”
Marco Rubio acknowledged that the plan improved with the input of allies, and negotiations continue this week, with Volodymyr Zelensky expected to travel to Washington.
The issue of ceding territories is the most difficult issue for Kiev.
“I think that there will be no peace agreement that does not include a de facto cession of territories, that is, that on the ground certain territories that belong to Ukraine in the light of international law will remain, I predict, in the hands of the Russians for a period of time that I cannot predict. There may be a difference between accepting this reality de facto, that is, freezing the front line and whoever is dominating, remains dominating each territory, whoever is dominating it at the moment, with possible changes in details, is different than accepting this de jure cession, that is, accepting that these territories legally become part of the Russian Federation. I think that much of the tension in the ongoing negotiations will also be around this. It’s very different, although we may say, well, in practice it’s the same.”
Regarding the timetable for a possible agreement, Pedro Cordeiro agrees with the German Chancellor when he says that the road is still long.
Still, Zelensky’s eventual trip to the US suggests that negotiators believe there is progress.
“No trips to Washington are planned without some conviction that an agreement can be reached.”
