In the first round, in one of the scenarios tested, the current president has 42% of voting intentions, while the governor of São Paulo appears with 21.7%
Research released this Tuesday (25), by CNT/MDA shows that the president (PT) is ahead in a first round and would defeat all eight opponents tested in a possible second round in the 2026 presidential elections. In the first round, in one of the scenarios tested, Lula has 42%, while the governor of São Paulo, (Republicans), appears with 21.7%. Next, they are . (PSD), governor of Paraná, with 11.8%; and Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais, with 5.7%. White and null are 14.7%, and undecided, 4.1%. When Tarcísio’s name is replaced by that of federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), Lula has 42.7%; and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 17.4%. Ratinho Jr., 14%; and Zema, 9.6%. White and null are 13.1% and undecided, 3.2%.
In a scenario where the former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro is present, Lula also appears with 42.7%, while she has 23%. Then there are Ratinho Jr., with 11.4%; and Zema, 8.3%. White and null are 11.7%, and undecided, 2%. The results are part of the 166th round of opinion research released by the National Transport Confederation (CNT), in partnership with the MDA Institute. 2,022 interviews were carried out between November 19th and 23rd, in person and at home, in 140 municipalities in all 27 federative units. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
See the 1st round scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Lula: 38,8%;
Jair Bolsonaro: 27%;
Ciro Gomes: 9.6%;
Ratinho Jr.: 6.4%;
Ronaldo Caiado: 4%;
Romeu Low: 2.7%;
Blank/null: 8.5%;
Undecided: 3%.
Scenario 2:
Lula: 42%;
Tarcísio de Freitas: 21.7%;
Ratinho Jr.: 11.8%;
Romeu Low: 5.7%
Blank/null: 14.7%;
Undecided: 4.1%.
Scenario 3:
Lula: 42,7%;
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 17.4%;
Ratinho Jr.: 14%;
Romeu Low: 9.6%;
Blank/null: 13.1%;
Undecided: 3.2%.
Scenario 4:
Lula: 42,7%;
Michelle Bolsonaro: 23%;
Ratinho Jr.: 11.4%;
Romeu Low: 8.3%
Blank/null: 11.7%;
Undecided: 2.0%.
In the second round scenarios, Lula also appears ahead, and the best placed opponents are Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Jr.
In a possible dispute with the governor of São Paulo, Lula has 45.7% and Tarcísio, 39.1%. With the governor of Paraná, the president has 45.8%; and Ratinho Jr., 38.7%.
See the second round scenarios:
Scenario 1: Lula x Jair Bolsonaro
Lula: 49,2%;
Jair Bolsonaro: 36.9%;
Blank/null: 12.5%;
Undecided: 1.4%.
Scenario 2: Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas
Lula: 45,7%;
Tarcísio de Freitas: 39.1%;
Blank/null: 12.5%;
Undecided: 2.7%.
Scenario 3: Lula x Ratinho Jr.
Lula: 45,8%;
Ratinho Jr.: 38.7%;
Blank/null: 12.5%;
Undecided: 3%.
Scenario 4: Lula x Romeu Zema
Lula: 47,9%;
Romeu Low: 33.5%;
Blank/null: 15.2%;
Undecided: 3.4%.
Scenario 5: Lula x Ronaldo Caiado
Lula: 46,9%;
Ronaldo Caiado: 33.7%;
Blank/null: 15.7%;
Undecided: 3.7%.
Scenario 6: Lula x Ciro Gomes
Lula: 44,1%;
Ciro Gomes: 35.1%;
Blank/null: 17.6%;
Undecided: 3.2%
Scenario 7: Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro
Lula: 49,9%;
Eduardo Bolsonaro: 33.3%;
Blank/null: 14.6%;
Undecided: 2.2%.
Scenario 8: Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro
Lula: 49,1%;
Michelle Bolsonaro: 35.6%;
Blank/null: 13.7%;
Undecided: 1.6%.
Bolsonaro is most rejected; Lula has greater voting potential
The CNT/MDA survey also showed that former president Jair Bolsonaro remains the most rejected for the 2026 presidential election. Among those interviewed, 43% responded that they would not vote for Bolsonaro “at all”. That’s 3 percentage points more than in the last survey, when 40% said they would not vote for the former president.
Next, the most rejected in the November survey were: Lula, with 40.8%; Tarcísio de Freitas, 2.2%; Eduardo Bolsonaro, 1.8%; Michelle Bolsonaro, 1.8%; and Ciro Gomes, 1.8%. Others total 6.6%; rejects all, 0.7%; reject none, 3.8%; do not know or did not answer, 12%.
The research was carried out spontaneously, that is, when respondents did not receive a range of options to evaluate.
The survey also showed that 35.3% prefer Lula or a candidate supported by the PT. Then come the 33.3% who prefer someone who is neither supported by Lula nor Bolsonaro.
There are still 27.3% who prefer to vote for Bolsonaro or a candidate supported by him.
Lula also appears ahead in the voting potential survey, with 51.3% who would vote “definitely” or “could vote”.
This is a greater potential than that of Jair Bolsonaro, who appears with 28.6% in these categories. The others are Ciro Gomes, 44.3%; Tarcísio de Freitas, 39.7%; Ratinho Jr., 38.3%; Eduardo Bolsonaro, 30.4%.
Eduardo (62.6%) and Jair Bolsonaro (60.1%) appear with the highest percentage who say they “would not vote”.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
