São Paulo (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2025/26 cotton harvest should reach 3.695 million tons, StoneX estimated this Tuesday (25), reducing its projection by 1% compared to the previous month.
If confirmed, the volume would represent a drop of 11% compared to that produced in the previous year.
“The decrease is directly linked to the revaluation of the planted area, especially in the State of Bahia, which is expected to sow 393 thousand hectares, 5% less than in the 2024/25 harvest”, explained the financial services company, in a note.
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This drop reflects a frustration in profitability expectations, driven by low cotton prices on the global market, according to Raphael Bulascoschi, market intelligence analyst at StoneX.
In Mato Grosso, the planting estimate remains at 1.42 million hectares, a drop of 90 thousand hectares in the annual comparison. But “the scenario still presents uncertainties”, said StoneX, due to the possibility that the planting of the second cotton crop will be impacted by the delay in soybean sowing, caused by irregular rains.
For exports, StoneX stated that, even with lower supply, Brazil should maintain its position as the main global supplier of cotton next year.
