The prolonged drought undermines its future. As the country faces its worst drought in several years, Iranian authorities are warning that residents of Tehran are at risk of running out of water within weeks. Iran’s president, Massoud Pezheskian, even referred to the possibility of having to evacuate the .
No one knows for sure where so many millions of people could move – in 2016, Tehran’s population was 12.8 million people. Lately, authorities have been seeding clouds to induce rain in a bid to end a prolonged drought of the past five years that has brought Iran to the brink of collapse.
Political causes of the water crisis
Beyond the phenomenon of climate change, however, the causes of this environmental crisis are also political. As the American newspaper Washington Post points out, for decades, Iran’s governments have been making choices aimed at strengthening agriculture in order for the country to be self-sufficient in food. In this context, they proceeded with systematic irrigations, as a result of which they sacrificed almost all of Iran’s water resources.
To guarantee the cultivation of essential products, including highly water-bearing ones such as rice and apples, Iran allowed the drilling of wells that drained even the most arid regions. Even in places where drilling was prohibited, it often intensified illegally, without the state being able to curtail it.
This policy helped to double, after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the irrigated land, which now exceeds 22 million hectares (Iran’s total area is 1.6 billion hectares).
Review of agricultural policy?
Many Iranians are in favor of a radical overhaul of the agricultural policy as the current model is no longer sustainable. But in order to revise Iran’s agricultural policy, its relations with the rest of the world would have to change.
Agriculture remains a key sector of the economy because Iran has been unable to develop other sectors – partly due to Western sanctions over its nuclear program. Jobs in the agricultural sector make up 25% of total employment.
For decades, Iran’s religious leaders have argued that the country cannot trust the rest of the world for its food security.
Ayatollah Khomeini, one of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution and religious and political leader of Iran from 1979 to 1989, argued that agriculture should be “the basis of everything”. And his successor, Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s current supreme religious leader, has repeatedly stressed that the country must produce its own food so as not to succumb to pressure from “the powerful of the world.”
The water is getting saltier
80 – 90% of Iran’s water is used for agricultural purposes – a rate that depletes the country’s renewable water resources. It should be noted that Iran is among the countries with the greatest dependence on groundwater while its soil is becoming increasingly saline.
Climate change is exacerbating the crisis, as it causes a decrease in rainfall, making available water even more limited. In the first 53 days of this autumn, rainfall in Iran was 83% below average.
Analysts point out that even if Iran’s government wanted to curtail agricultural production and put millions of jobs at risk, it lacks the popular legitimacy to proceed with such painful changes. In the last fifteen years in Iran, the anti-government protests have often been caused by the economic difficulties of the citizens. This year’s water shortage has, so far, sparked isolated protests.
The Iranian government, however, remains committed to the principle of the country’s food self-sufficiency. Last year, parliament approved a five-year development plan that stipulates that 90% of staple food items – wheat, barley, rice, pulses, red and white meat and sugar – will be produced domestically.
