The 35th round of Brazilian Championship brought new adjustments to the fight for the last places in the G7. The UFMG Mathematics Department updated the probabilities this Tuesday (25), showing an increasingly defined scenario for the 2026 Libertadores.
With the most recent results, Bahia and Fluminense took important steps towards mathematical confirmation, while São Paulo gained minimal momentum and Atlético-MG maintained merely residual chances.
Guaranteed G5
Botafogo, Cruzeiro, Flamengo, Mirassol and Palmeiras are 100% guaranteed in the next edition of , with no changes at the top of the ranking. The disputes now focus on defining the final positions of the G7.
Bahia, , practically sealed its trip to the continental tournament: the team reached a 99.42% probability, consolidating itself as the favorite for sixth place.
Right behind, Fluminense, , appears with 98.2% and must confirm its place in the next appointments.
São Paulo grows
São Paulo gained survival. The result made Tricolor rise to 2.4% and resume its position as the main pursuer of the G7 among those who are not yet virtually classified.
Atlético-MG, despite the delicate situation, is not yet mathematically eliminated. With a 0.037% probability, the team appears technically alive, but it depends on an unlikely combination of results in the final rounds and is practically out of contention.
The 3-0 defeat to Flamengo officially nullified Red Bull Bragantino’s chances, which now appears at 0%. Corinthians, Ceará and Grêmio, defeated by Cruzeiro, Mirassol and Botafogo, respectively, also lost the last mathematical possibilities.
Updated ranking of the chances of a place in the Libertadores
- Flamengo – 100%
- Palm trees – 100%
- Cruise – 100%
- Mirassol – 100%
- Botafogo – 100%
- Bahia – 99,42%
- Fluminense – 98.2%
- São Paulo – 2.4%
- Atlético – 0,037%
- Red Bull Bragantino – 0%
- Ceará – 0%
- Corinthians – 0%
- Fortaleza – 0%
- Grêmio – 0%
- International – 0%
- Youth – 0%
- Santos – 0%
- Sport – 0%
- Vasco – 0%
- Victory – 0%
