Can the latest talks with Ukraine actually end the war? Four questions and answers

Meetings in Switzerland. Conversations in the United Arab Emirates. A possible Ukrainian presidential visit to the United States.

And yet, despite the recent wave of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and officials announcing promising developments, mostly in informal briefings, it is difficult to say whether a deal is actually close to the goal. The main demands of each side remain the same.

The Trump administration is making a big effort to reach a historic agreement, but Russian President Vladimir Putin and his delegates have given no indication that they want the years-long conflict to end with a compromise.

Now, a U.S. official has informed journalists in a closed group that Ukraine has agreed to a peace proposal — which may or may not be attractive to Russia — even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says “there is still a lot of work ahead.”

This comes after Ukrainian and European officials strongly opposed and then revised the 28-point peace plan they were surprised with last week, which was drafted by the US with apparent strong input from Russia.

What we know from the first round of proposed agreements is that the Kremlin continues to insist on its maximalist objectives of demilitarizing Ukraine, preventing its entry into NATO and formally reclaiming part of its territory. Ukraine continues to want a viable path to NATO membership and wants to avoid ceding territory. The country and its European allies are publicly adamant that peace cannot mean capitulation to Russia.

Between these red lines, will there be room for negotiation?

What is the latest news on the plan?

Diplomacy appeared to be at something of an impasse until a new 28-point blueprint was widely publicized last week. The White House said the project was the result of a month of work between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, along with input from Russians and Ukrainians.

After intense negotiations this week with Ukraine and European allies, the project was revised and reduced to just 19 points, with some of the provisions considered unacceptable by Kiev having been eliminated.

Some of the most controversial proposals – including issues related to territory and NATO – were withdrawn, so that Trump and Zelensky could discuss them later, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of Foreign Affairs, told the Financial Times.

The exact wording of the last draft is unknown.

What are the main points of contention?

Russia wants to gain full and formal control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. This would involve Ukraine giving up heavily fortified parts of Donetsk that it still controls and that are considered key to its defense.

Ukraine has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of ceding land that Russia does not control. But Kiev has previously accepted the idea that a temporary ceasefire could be reached along the current front lines – which could effectively consolidate Russia’s occupation of the territory it controls.

US proposals seen by CNN suggest that the “fortress belt” area of ​​eastern Ukraine could become a demilitarized zone, which is de facto controlled by Russia, but which its military forces would agree not to enter. It’s hard to see how Zelensky could agree to this after years of conflict, as CNN has already written, but in theory it could present an area of ​​potential diplomatic movement.

Current Russian control in key regions of Ukraine

The fine print will be important, especially when it comes to what Russia would control in fact – in reality – versus what it would control under international law.

European allies reiterated that Ukraine’s borders cannot be changed by force.

Ukraine also remains steadfast in its demands for credible security guarantees and its aspirations to join NATO.

But another of Putin’s main red lines is anything that keeps the door open to Ukraine joining NATO. Moscow wants Kiev to face a maximum limit on its armed forces and to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join the transatlantic military alliance nor will it have NATO forces stationed within its borders.

The original version of the peace plan drawn up by the US provided for the restriction of further expansion of NATO, which was later eliminated in the European counter-proposal. It is not clear what the latest proposal entails.

The room for maneuver in relation to these points could be the definition of credible, non-NATO security guarantees for Ukraine. The original US plan proposed “reliable security guarantees” for Ukraine and defined specific scenarios that would result in a coordinated US security response.

It remains to be seen whether Ukraine would be willing to agree to some form of guarantees along the lines of NATO’s Article Five, even if it means the country cannot formally join the Alliance anytime soon.

Security guarantees are reportedly being defined in a separate attached agreement.

Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, speculated to CNN: “One could mitigate the ‘no NATO troops’ by not placing them under NATO command.”

“We could have a scenario in which, bilaterally, the Ukrainians admitted a contingent from Poland, a group from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Nordic countries… under their own national flag. They could then constitute a kind of common thread,” he explained, which could alleviate Ukraine’s concerns, although, in turn, it could trigger Russian objections.

What has changed since the last major diplomatic push?

The Trump administration renewed this latest diplomatic push after successfully negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. But practically nothing has changed in the Kremlin’s position since the last major diplomatic foray, in which Trump received Putin in Alaska.

No agreement was reached in Anchorage and Trump would later abandon the idea of ​​a second summit in Hungary. At the time, American officials told CNN they thought Putin’s position on ending the war had not changed significantly.

What has changed is that Russia is gaining more and more ground on the battlefield in Ukraine. The conflict has become a war of attrition, which favors the larger Russian armed forces.

“They clearly think they are going to be in a position to dictate terms to Ukraine, rather than simply having to negotiate,” John Lough, foreign policy director at the think tank New Eurasian Strategies Center, told CNN. “I have trouble seeing other concessions that they would actually be prepared to make.”

Lough said he feels “gloomy” about the prospects for peace emerging soon, but added a note about the Kremlin’s current diplomatic calculus: “I think there is a question for Putin … whether he wants to lose the opportunity to win with Trump’s help – because Trump is going to get tired of dealing with this at some point and won’t put any more effort into it.”

Almost half of Ukraine’s bilateral aid comes from the US

By the end of 2024, the US accounted for 52% of Ukraine’s aid. Although it is still the largest contributor to date, the percentage has decreased. European countries have now allocated about a third of their aid to Ukraine.

For Ukraine, what has changed is the growing pressure on Zelensky’s administration in the wake of a corruption scandal, which centers on alleged kickbacks from contractors, including those working to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The scandal brought down two of Zelensky’s ministers and implicated one of his former business partners. However, although his polls are not as high as in the first months of the war, Zelensky remains very popular among Ukrainians.

How are things going from now on?

The White House sought to project optimism and said “some sensitive details” will require further talks. But by the end of Tuesday, in Europe, assessments were more sober.

A Ukrainian source with direct knowledge of the talks told CNN that “it would be very wrong to say that we now have the version that is accepted by Ukraine.” Ukraine’s Secretary of National Security, Rustem Umerov, was similarly moderate, saying only that the delegations had “reached a common understanding.”

Any progress that may occur could still be nipped in the bud by an unfavorable reaction from Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that any modified plan must reflect the “spirit and letter” of the Alaska summit earlier this year — a first indication that Russia will not be in favor of compromises on language.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov kept his message simple, saying they had not received official information about the modified plan and had “nothing to report” about U.S. talks with Russian delegates in Abu Dhabi.

Many analysts continue to express skepticism about the possibility of reaching an agreement, given the lack of common interests.

“War usually ends when both sides are exhausted and have more to gain from ending the fighting than from continuing it. Both are tired. Especially the Ukrainians; but not tired enough to accept such terms, an act that could lead to Zelensky being expelled by popular protests,” wrote Greg Mills, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), regarding the 28-point project.

Umerov added that Ukraine hopes to organize a visit by Zelensky to the US to “complete the final steps and reach a deal with President Trump.”

In short, there will be more meetings.

CNN’s Matthew Chance, Oren Liebermann, Natasha Bertrand and Victoria Butenko contributed to this report.