The drones that have approached airports in Germany, Poland, Belgium and Estonia, in addition to the frequent incidents of sabotage, are chilling reminders of how Russia’s relentless war in Ukraine can easily spread across Europe.
The threat has put intense pressure on mainland countries and the United Kingdom to rapidly expand the number of full-time soldiers and reservists, which declined during the post-Cold War peace. However, the question of how to recruit hundreds of thousands of military personnel is provoking heated and in-depth debates.
After bitter disagreements over economics, politics and military strategy, the German government decided this month to forego mandatory military service in favor of a volunteer force — although it left the door open to mandatory conscription if the number of recruits falls below expectations.
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Croatia took a different path and, a few weeks earlier, restored conscription, which had been abolished 18 years ago.
In Poland, there are plans for all men to undergo military training, while Prime Minister Donald Tusk intends to more than double the size of the army, from 200,000 to 500,000.
And Denmark, which wants to increase its forces from 70,000 to 200,000 by 2030, has expanded conscription to include women and lengthened the period of service from four to 11 months. “Defense needs all the combat power we can mobilize,” said Michael W. Hyldgaard, Denmark’s defense chief.
Other countries promise to do a better job of attracting volunteers and meeting national goals and NATO commitments.
France has announced plans to launch an optional military service program next year. And the United Kingdom has hired a private recruitment firm to create a streamlined process in 2027 to rebuild its thinned ranks.
Even so, the prospects for achieving the goals are bleak. “Retention rates remain low in many countries, reservation schemes are irregular, and recruitment has declined in aging societies with low unemployment,” concluded the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a European think tank, in a recent report.
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The calculations for building an effective fighting force are complex. Especially when, on average, less than a third of European Union citizens said they were willing to fight for their country in a war, according to a 2024 Gallup poll, more than two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The survey showed that in the United States — where conscription ended in 1973 during the Vietnam War, when anti-war protesters turned “I Want You” signs into “I Want Out” — 42% were willing to take up arms.
On one side of the debate, serving in the military is a civic duty and a unifying force — an experience that transcends geographic, racial, ethnic, and class differences. It’s also the fairest way to distribute the burden of defense, supporters say.
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On the other side: conscription has no place in free societies and has an enormous economic cost, forcing citizens to work in jobs that divert their skills and talents from their best possible use.
During his 1968 campaign, President Richard Nixon, influenced by free-market economist and Nobel laureate Milton Friedman—not to mention voter sentiment—called the draft a “huge hidden tax.”
In Europe, 12 countries, including Turkey, a member of the Atlantic alliance, maintain some form of conscription. Recent polls indicate that most people in Germany, France and Poland support the reintroduction of some form of compulsory military service.
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Proximity to Russia is clearly a factor. Finland, which shares a 1,340km border with Russia, maintained conscription even after the fall of the Soviet Union. The same did Norway and Denmark, close neighbors. Sweden reinstituted the practice for men and women in 2017. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, former Soviet states, have variations of conscription.
Most successful conscription programs still rely largely on volunteers, said Sophia Besch, a senior fellow in the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Norway and Sweden, for example, require all men and women to register, but there is a rigorous selection process based on a long questionnaire, physical tests and willingness to serve.
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In Lithuania, Latvia and Denmark, there are draws if the number of volunteers is insufficient.
Governments offer incentives. Norway offers recruits a bonus after service. In Latvia, volunteers can enroll in higher education programs for free. And under the new law in Croatia, recruits will have preferential treatment when applying for jobs in public and state institutions.
“Let’s make voluntary service more attractive,” said Jens Spahn, parliamentary leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union party, after this month’s vote.
The German government wants to increase the number of active-duty military personnel from 180,000 to 260,000 and reservists from 50,000 to 200,000 over the next decade to create the “strongest conventional army in the EU”.
The question of how to best build an armed force comes at a time of uncertain transition. Growth is slowing, and European economies face enormous pressure as the global trading system is shaken. Technological advances are transforming warfare and leading strategists to rethink assumptions about how to most effectively deploy troops.
Furthermore, President Donald Trump has made clear that he is scaling back American commitments and demanding that European forces be responsible for their own security as well as that of Ukraine. Last month, the administration reduced the number of U.S. troops in Romania, NATO’s eastern flank.
“We are safe now,” Mark Rutte, NATO secretary general, told members of the European Parliament in January, shortly after taking office. “We may not be safe in five years.”
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