The director of the Center for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat (CEO), Joan Rodríguez Teruel (Barcelona, 51 years old) received this newspaper this Tuesday, in full Parliament of the barometer published last Monday. Preceded by days of hoaxes about its content, the survey shows the advance of the extreme right. Junts per Catalunya loses between 15 and 16 deputies, who end up on the bench of a disparate Aliança Catalana (AC); The two formations share third position.
Rodríguez Teruel defended the professionalism of the CEO’s workers in the face of attacks from Junts that sees a black hand against them. He asks not to question the institutions in the face of a CA that feeds on anti-politics and that sees it close to facing its contradictions.
Ask. The presentation of the barometer began by denying hoaxes. Symptomatic of the times?
Answer. Polls, like the rest of the areas of political life, experience deformations and the creation of legends that seek to provoke states of opinion.
P. What makes you think that Vox or Aliança will not continue and the fall of Ciudadanos or Podemos?
R. Vox is already beginning to establish itself as a new actor in the political framework and Aliança has learned how to focus on the message. Podemos and Ciudadanos did not give the importance to the organization at the time and the extreme right is betting on an organizational base that supports the arrival of these new voters.
P. The July Barometer indicated that a. Will that ceiling break?
R. It is unfounded to anticipate the capacity of these parties to achieve a revolution of the system. To break this ceiling, it would be necessary for them to have government experience and for there to be a delegitimization of the current forces in power. This perception of discredit does not exist in Catalonia.
P. Can traditional parties stop it?
R. I do not find satisfactory the idea that the rise of the far right is the product of the losers of globalization. I think it has more to do with how the representative bond between parties and citizens has been broken. Traditional parties can win if they demonstrate that they are capable of doing so, if they convey a coherent vision of the future and if they generate well-being that gives their traditional voters incentives to continue supporting them.
P. Aliança, according to the barometer, shows support beyond the independence movement. How can you explain it?
R. At the moment, Aliança focuses on the rejection of immigration and socialist governments, attracting a broader electorate of the independence movement. But at some point this heterogeneity will be unsustainable. When you have to talk about public policies, the limits of your speech will be shown.
P. Could the PSC also be affected by the success of Sílvia Orriols’ team?
R. Polls show that they are antagonistic parties. But socialist leaders do have to weigh how the destabilization of a systemic party like Junts would affect them.
P. Beyond the latest barometer, Junts always complains about the deviation of its results. What’s happening?
R. It is not true that the CEO systematically harms the space that Junts represents. Without going any further, in the 2012 elections CiU was given a very positive estimate. Many times surveys are misread because they are seen as adjusted predictions when in reality they are key to understanding fundamental changes. You have to read the studies as a whole, not just the seats.
P. Junts talks about an operation against him…
R. I am concerned that some traditional parties will try to shake off the problems they have through a survey, discrediting the entire institution. That rebounds on them, because it feeds conspiratorial thinking. The technical debate is much more interesting.
P. Would it not have been advisable to explain his method, as his predecessor did, when he came to office?
R. The CEO’s design is prepared to guarantee transparency from the first moment. Another thing is the decision to make or not make estimates that have been made in 20 years of history. Muñoz introduced a certain sophistication with his method, which is more rigid, connects with current postulates and is more likely to be explained. It is legitimate and I have never wanted to contrast it with mine, which is included as always in the barometers.
P. Muñoz was criticized for his very wide range of seats. Isn’t it ironic that this precisely reflects the uncertainty inherent in surveys?
R. The chances of being wrong are as high as those of my predecessor, but at least this forces me to explain the decisions more to focus on those smaller ranges.
P. Wouldn’t a sample design avoid controversy?
R. I defend the commitment to clusters, more representative of municipalities and population, against the vision of making provincial quotas, overrepresenting small constituencies. Surely it would be necessary to increase the base of the number of surveys collected to be able to better see the changes that occur in Lleida and Girona, but it is a technical decision of the CEO.
P. What do you respond to someone who attributes bias to you for having been?
R. The questioning is legal. It further increases my self-demand in the performance and professionalism of the position I have.
